Chicago Grains Turn Lower
04/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended lower on harvest pressure and reports of a fresh outbreak of bird flu in China. Informa today estimated the US 2014 soybean crop at 3.991 billion bushels, with yields at 47.9 bu/acre. FCStone yesterday forecast US soybean yields at 48.4 bu/acre, with production at 4.033 billion bushels. The USDA were 47.1 bu/acre and 3.927 billion bushels in October. Informa also put the Brazilian 2014/15 soybean crop at 93.0 MMT, up 500,000 MT from their previous estimate. They now see the Argentine 2014/15 soybean crop at 56 MMT, also up 500,000 MT from previously. Weakness in crude oil was a negative influence too today, with Saudi Arabia slashing its contracted price for sales to the US. Around 400 workers at two Cargill owned soybean crushing plants in Rosario, Argentina, are said to be out on an "indefinite" strike, according to Reuters. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014 canola imports at a record 5.0 MMT, up 64% from last year. The market looks set to be lining up a re-test of the $10/bushel support level. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.10, down 18 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.09 3/4, down 20 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $372.50, down $0.20; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.07, down 96 points.
Corn: The corn market slumped on harvest pressure following last night's announcement from the USDA that US farmers had cut 19% of their 2014 corn crop in the past week. That's "one of the strongest levels of progress for any week in the past 20 years - equivalent to approaching 16m acres, an area 1.5 times as big as Switzerland," said Agrimoney. Informa estimated US corn yields this year at 174.4 bu/acre, with production at 14.493 billion bushels. FCStone were 178 bu/acre, with production at 14.783 billion bushels yesterday. The USDA were 174.2 bu/acre and 14.395 billion bushels last month. Indonesia bought 110,000 MT of Brazilian corn for Jan–Feb shipment in a tender. Israel cancelled a tender to buy 90,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan-March shipment. The EU lowered import taxes for corn, sorghum, and rye to EUR4.49/tonne from EUR10.44/tonne. Informa estimated EU corn production this year at 72.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 71.0 MMT. They have the Brazilian corn crop estimated at 69.7 MMT, down 900,000 MT from their previous estimate. Safras e Mercado said Brazilian corn planting is 54.4% complete versus 45.8% a week ago and 76.6% a year ago. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.64 1/2, down 9 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around 7-8 cents lower across the three exchanges. "US wheat futures reversed yesterday’s late strength early in the overnight market as the inability to test yesterday’s highs triggered selling," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Informa now have the EU-28 2014/15 wheat crop estimated at 154.7 MMT, up 724,000 MT from their previous estimate. They cut their forecast for the Australia wheat crop to 22.0 MMT, down 1.9 MMT from their previous estimate. They also estimated US all wheat production at 2.035 billion bushels, and winter wheat production at 1.378 billion bushels. "Dryness building across parts of the Former Soviet Union is increasing stress upon the winter wheat crop. At the same time, prolonged colder than normal temperatures are pushing the crop into dormancy," said MDA CropCast. Having bought one cargo of French wheat over the weekend, Egypt announced another tender for wheat for Dec 11-20 shipment, with the results expected tomorrow. French wheat is likely to be the most competitive once again. "Short term and daily momentum studies are turning lower in all three markets. At best, once supportive weekly studies have flattened,it wouldn’t take much selling to turn the weekly studies lower. It appears the downside move is gaining momentum," said Benson Quinn. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.90 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.69, down 8 cents.
