Chicago Soybeans Rise On Huge Exports, Corn And Wheat Prospects Not So Bright Though
17/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans regained some of Friday's losses, helped by a larger than expected October NOPA crush number and enormous weekly export inspections. The NOPA crush came in at 157.96 million bushels, up almost a million compared to October 2013, with the trade expecting a drop on 12 months ago. Weekly export inspections were a gigantic 3.113 MMT compared to 2.389 MMT a year ago, and a record volume for any week ever. The USDA reported that 94% of the US soybean crop had now been harvested, up 4 points versus last week and 2 points behind the 5-year average. In Brazil, the weather remains generally uncooperative. "Rainfall last week was disappointing in Brazil’s main soybean growing areas, however, the forecast is hopeful for strong showers in the upcoming week. Over the past 7 days, less than 20 mm of rainfall has developed in Mato Grosso’s center-east whereas the average weekly rainfall would be near 50 mm. South Brazil soybean states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul were also dry last week, receiving less than 20 mm of rainfall against 39 mm on average," said Martell Crop Projections. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.36 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.44, up 15 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $387.10, up $7.20; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.45, up 25 points.
Corn: The corn market ended around 3-4 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were on the light side at only 401,116 MT last week versus 528,042 the previous week. Very strong global demand for nearby soybeans may have something to do with this, as US berths can only load a finite volume of grains/oilseeds in a week. "From a technical standpoint, upward momentum is waning with help from lower trade the last couple of sessions. However, the market has only managed a 15 cent correction from last week’s highs and has held potential support at the 10 day moving average of 374," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA reported that the 2014 US corn harvest was now 89% complete, up from 80% a week ago, and not a bad effort given the weather conditions. The new total is actually now one point ahead of the prior 5-year average! Russia's corn harvest is now 90% complete at 10.2 MMT. Corn accounted for 70% of Ukraine's grain exports last week, up from 65% the previous week and 53% the week before that. China are said to have bought over 1 MMT of Ukraine corn since the beginning of October. The Chinese are also said to have recently purchased Bulgarian corn for the first time. They appear to be no closer to resolving the MIR 162 dispute with the US than they were a year ago when they started rejecting US supplies. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.77 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around 6-9 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were a bearish influence. These came in at a miserly 139,351 MT, down from 302,622 MT last week and 493,020 MT a year ago. Again, this may have been due to the US majoring on beans. "Given the number of soybean inspections, I am not sure where they find the capacity to load wheat," said Benson Quinn. US winter wheat planting for the 2015 harvest only advanced 2 points to 95% complete this past week, said the USDA. That's down compared to the 5-year average of 95% and versus 99% done a year ago. Illinois is only 90% complete compared to 100% done a year ago and 95% for the 5-year average. Emergence is at 87% versus 83% last week, 88% last year and 84% on average. Crop conditions were unchanged on a week ago at 60% good to excellent, which is 3 points behind this time last year. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country had increased winter wheat plantings this year by almost 5% to 6.4 million hectares. They said that 89% of winter grains were emerged, and 83% of that was in good to satisfactory condition. However weather forecasters said last week that "at least 30 percent of Ukrainian winter grain crops, mostly late-sown, were under threat and may be damaged by frosts," according to a report on Reuters. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.51 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.96 1/2, down 9 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.83 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents.
