Chicago Soymeal Posts Largest Monthly Gain Since 1976
31/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with good gains, having traded both sides earlier in the session. Both were sharply higher for the week and the month too. Meal in fact posted it's biggest monthly gain since 1976 in October. Funds bought an estimated 7,000 beans, 5,000 meal and 3,000 soyoil on the day, according to Benson Quinn Commodities. They said that they expect the USDA to report the 2014 US soybean harvest at around 85% done on Monday night, up from 70% complete a week ago. Thailand are said to have bought 340,000 MT of soymeal this week, mostly of Argentine origin. They've also been buying Argentine beans. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported Argentine soybean plantings at 4% complete versus 2% a week ago. They left their area estimate at 20.6 million hectares, unchanged from previously and a record. Rabobank pegged their first half of 2015 soybean price forecast at $9.50–$9.75, with prices falling to $9.00 in the second half of next year. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.46 1/2, up 22 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.49 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $389.00, up $9.00; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 34.80, up 49 points. For the week that puts nearby beans 69 cents higher, with meal up $38.80 and oil up 241 points. For the month, beans have put on $1.32 1/4, with meal up $81 and oil 251 points higher.
Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents firmer. "The southwest United States is expecting a few showers Sunday. However, by Monday significant rainfall is expected to develop in a swath of the Midwest, these showers coming from a moist stream coming out of Mexico. Midwest farms would receive at least 0.75 inch of rainfall but up to 1.5 inches locally. Farms in Nebraska, western Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota would be mostly bypassed receiving lighter rainfall under 0.50 inch. The Midwest average weekly rainfall at this time of year is only 0.34 inch. Heavy Midwest rainfall would develop with a big portion of the corn crop still in the field. As of October 26th, only 46% of US corn was in the bin, compared to 65% normally," said Martell Crop Projections. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentine corn plantings at 35.6% complete versus 32.8% a week ago and 34.8% a year ago. Russia said that their corn harvest was 82.5% complete on 2.2 million hectares at 9.8 MMT. US DDGs prices are close to 5-year lows on oversuppply. "I don’t expect prices to rally. Increasing supply will ultimately have to find a way to gain a bigger portion of the domestic feed market," said Benson Quinn's Brian Henry. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.89 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents. For the week front month corn was 23 3/4 cents higher, and for the month it was 53 1/2 cents firmer.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day, but mostly higher for the week. Russia said it had harvested 108 MMT of grains off 96.1% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 61.5 MMT of that total (in bunker weight) off 96% of plan. Russian winter grain plantings are said to be 99.5% complete. Kazakh farmers are said to be struggling against heavy rain and snow to get the last of their 2014 harvest in. Ukraine said that it had exported 11.53 MMT of grains so far this season, including 6.37 MMT of wheat and 3.20 MMT of barley. Tunisia bought 150 TMT of optional origin durum wheat in a tender. South Korea bought 26,100 MT of US wheat for March/April shipment. India imported 12,000 MT of Australian wheat. The US Ag attaché reduced his estimate for the Australian wheat crop to 24 MMT, similar to yesterday's number from the IGC. The strong dollar remains a negative for US wheat export ambitions. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the Argentine wheat harvest at 5.2% complete versus 2.3% a week ago and 1.5% done a year ago. They said that the crop there is estimated at 11.5 MMT, unchanged from their previous forecast. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.93 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.74 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents. For the week CBOT wheat was up 14 3/4 cents, with Kansas unchanged and Minneapolis 7 1/4 cents firmer. For the month CBOT wheat was 54 3/4 cents higher, with KCBT up 25 3/4 and MGEX up 30 3/4 cents.
