Nogger's Blog

08/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a two-sided session higher. The USDA announced 130,000 MT of beans sold to Spain for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. Weekly export inspections were impressive once again at 2.2 MMT, taking the 2014/15 season to date total to 23.7 MMT versus 19.1 MMT a year ago. Chinese customs data showed that the country imported 6.03 MMT of beans in November, up 47.1% from October, but about the same as a year previously. China has now imported 62.87 MMT of beans between Jan-November, up 12.3% from a year ago. Trade analysts expect them to import around 7.5 MMT this month. Safras e Mercado said that Brazilian soybean planting is 92% complete versus 85% a week ago and 95% on average. Ag Rural estimated Brazilian plantings at 85% done, up 9 points on a week previously and 4 points behind normal. They forecast production up 10% this year at a record 94.9 MMT. Emater estimated soybean planting in Brazil's southern state of Rio Grande do Sul to be 80% done, with the crop largely in good condition. The Argentine National Bank, the largest agricultural lender in the country, are said to have announced that they will not give loans/credit to farmers who can't prove that they're not hoarding old crop soybeans. The Argentine government have been searching for a way of pressurising farmers into liquidating their crops, which some are holding as a hedge against the falling peso and raging inflation. Whether the move works remains to be seen. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.43 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.49 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $401.50, up $7.30; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.77, down 24 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower. March corn tried to break through $4/bushel but failed. The trade appears to feel that anything approaching $4/bushel on corn is a sell. The USDA announced 136,000 MT of corn sold to Japan for 2014/15 shipment, which failed to cause much excitement. Weekly export inspections of only 532,498 MT were less than expected and below the level required to hit the USDA target for the season. The strong US dollar continues to hamper foreign sales. Emater said that Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul is more than 90% planted on corn, and will be finished by the end of the month. Crop conditions are mostly good. Dr Cordonnier said that the first corn got planted in the state around August/September, and that some of that will be ready for harvesting by the end of December, so whilst some are getting ready to harvest others will only just be wrapping up with planting. Safras e Mercado said that nationally, Brazil corn planting is 95.9% complete versus 99.1% a year ago. Ukraine is now concentrating it's export efforts on corn, with 539.3 MMT, or 83%, of the 649.4 MMT of grains shipped out of the country's seaports last week being corn, according to APK Inform. South Korea KFA bought 60,000 MT of US or South American origin corn for April shipment. New lows in crude oil was seen as a bearish influence, even though recent weekly US ethanol production levels have been very good. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.77 1/2, down 4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections were less than stellar at only 269,319 MT, around half of what they were in the same week a year ago. The strong US dollar continues to hurt demand for US wheat, whilst Europe is exporting at a pace that is currently even ahead of last year - when exports went on to be record high. The world wants wheat, just not US wheat, at least for the time being anyway. Russia's exports are also well ahead of last year's levels, they've exported 14.6 MMT of wheat so far this season. Bangladesh are tendering for 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Jordan are in the market for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat of optional origin. India said that it had sown 20.86 million hectares of wheat for the 2015 harvest so far, down from 21.37 million this time a year ago. Weakness was seen on the front month Dec 14, relative to the deferred positions. The trade might be questioning why in the case of Chicago wheat, this should command a healthy premium over Mar 15, given the current sluggish demand scenario for US wheat, and the slow pace of exports. Ukraine said that it's winter grains were 95% emerged, and that 82% of the crop was in good to satisfactory condition. Large parts of Russia's winter grains remain vulnerable to winterkill. "World supplies aren’t ample enough to completely ignore potential export restrictions out of the Black Sea, but it is hard to get too excited so far ahead this far away from spring, when new crop issues could actually be confirmed," said Benson Quinn. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.10, up 1 cent; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.34, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.17, down 2 1/2 cents.