Chicago Market Positions Itself Ahead Of USDA Report
09/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended with fairly modest 5-6 cents gains ahead of the release tomorrow's USDA WASDE report. That is expected to reflect the current very strong pace of US soybean exports by raising those from the existing forecast of 46.8 MMT, with a subsequent lowering in ending stocks. These were projected at 450 million bushels last month, but could come in around the 425 million mark this time round. Strong demand for meal could also lead them to up the size of the US crush this season, also potentially eating into those ending stocks and reducing them further. World soybean ending stocks are expected to be around 88.5-91.5 MMT versus 90.3 MMT a month ago. Conab are also due to release their revised Brazilian production numbers tomorrow as well. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.49 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.55 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $411.60, up $10.10; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.91, up 14 points.
Corn: The corn market closed higher in what looks like book-squaring and short covering ahead of tomorrow's report. US corn ending stocks are forecast to rise around 15 million bushels to 2.023 billion bu in that. Argentine production will probably be left unchanged at 23 MMT, but Brazil's might be lowered from the current 75 MMT it is thought, with some other analyst's estimates below 70 MMT. The late planting of their full season soybean crop is likely to eat into their second crop corn area it is thought. Current corn prices in Brazil also offer little incentive. The world ending stocks figure is expected to come in between 190 and 194 MMT, according to a Bloomberg survey. Last month's figure was 191.5 MMT. The trade will also be looking at Conab's take on Brazilian corn production tomorrow, and in addition to that we will also have the weekly US ethanol grind data from the US Energy Dept. Last week's production was 962,000 barrels/day. Ukraine said that they'd now exported more than 5 MMT of corn this season. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.83, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.95 1/4, up 5 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower. The trade is wondering what tomorrow's report will hold for wheat. It seems that there is a possibility that the USDA might lower projected US wheat exports in 2014/15 from last month's 25.5 MMT estimate. That could raise ending stocks from the 644 million bushels estimated in November. EU wheat exports on the other hand might rise from last month's 28 MMT. World ending stocks are expected to come in around 191.8 MMT, from within a range of guesses from 189.5 MMT to 193.2 MMT, and versus 192.9 MMT a month ago. Essentially, there is no shortage of wheat around at the moment, and although demand is also buoyant, it's not generally US wheat that the world is buying. ABARES cut their forecast for the Australian wheat crop by 1 MMT to 23.2 MMT. "The worst damage has occurred in Victoria where the wheat harvest is pegged down 28%. Western Australia, the leading wheat state, is expecting a 20% shortfall," said Martell Crop Projections. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.00 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17, down 17 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.04, down 13 cents.
