Nogger's Blog

06/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans extended yesterday's winning streak, closing around 10 cents higher. "There was little new in the way of fresh news today but upward was the trend for the beans as trade continues to trim short positions ahead of next Monday’s production, supply and demand and quarterly stocks reports," said Benson Quinn. The USDA announced 243,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. Abiove said Brazil exported 45.7 MMT of beans in 2014 versus 42.8 MMT in 2013. They said that Brazil exported 13.7 MMT of meal in 2014 versus 13.3 MMT in 2013. There's talk of dryness issues in central and northern parts of Brazil. "The updated forecast is both warmer and drier than normal in Mato Grosso and the tropics at large," said Martell Crop Projections. A few early planted new crop beans have been harvested in the state, and also in Parana, said Dr Cordonnier. The bulk of the Mato Grosso harvest is expected to kick off 2-3 weeks from now. Informa pegged the 2014 US soybean crop at 3.969 billion bushels, with yields at 47.6 bu/acre, both a little higher than the USDA. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.51, up 11 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.55 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $370.80, up $1.80; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.69, down 1 point.

Corn: The corn market closed with small losses. Firmer trade in soybeans and wheat offered some support to corn today, but not enough to see the market close higher. "In orderly trade, the corn market settled into a relatively narrow range with a lower bias until a round of buying emerged late in the session," said Benson Quinn. The continually firm US dollar offers a negative bias to trade. Weekly export inspections are running below the level required to hit USDA forecasts for the season. Informa estimated the US 2014 corn crop at 14.425 billion bushels, with a national average yield of 172.7 bu/acre. Their production estimate is higher than the USDA, although their yield figure is lower, by virtue of a 400,000 acre increase in the harvested area. Ukraine said that they'd exported 7.6 MMT of corn since the start of the 2014/15 season in July. Corn currently accounts for around 80% of all their weekly grain exports as wheat shipments fall off. There's talk that the Ukraine government have cancelled VAT rebates on grain exports. It remains to be seen if these now continue at the current pace. Crude oil fell below $50/barrel for the first time since 2009. Monday's USDA report may provide corn with some much needed direction. Prior to that we have some Brazilian crop production estimates due from Conab on Friday. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.05, down 1 cent; May 15 Corn closed at $4.13 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains, but well off the intra-day highs which showed double digit advances at one stage. A slump in US winter wheat crop ratings was supportive, with Illinois down 32 percentage points in the good to excellent category. Kansas and Nebraska wheat were down 12 points each and South Dakota fell 11 points. Drought and winterkill worries are the main reasons for the sharp declines. China were said to have bought 120,000 MT of hard wheat over the past few days, most likely of US and/or Australian origin. Algeria were said to have bought 450-500,000 MT of optional origin wheat for March/April shipment, most likely of French/German origin. Tunisia seeks 117,000 MT of soft milling wheat, along with 50,000 MT of barley, both of optional origin for Feb-Mar shipment. Kuwait are in the market for 80,000 MT of optional origin feed barley for Apr-May shipment. India’s government said that as of Jan 2nd the country has planted 29.3 million ha of wheat versus 29.4 million a year ago. Informa estimated US winter wheat production down 10.7% from last year at 1.378 billion bu. They have all wheat output down 5.1% year on year at 2.026 billion bu. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.91 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.31 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.25 1/2, up 4 cents.