Chicago Grains Fall, Corn Fares Best On Opening Day Of 2015

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or two lower. Increased farmer selling was noted today, an interesting development on the first trading day of the year, especially as prices are now below $4/bushel which has hitherto proven to be the cut off point in producer interest. Weekly export sales came in at 895,100 MT for 2014/15, down 46 percent from the previous week and 20 percent below the prior 4-week average. This was still a respectable total for a holiday week though. Actual shipments came in at 667,800 MT. Total exports for the season to date are now 12.1 MMT, with a further 14.8 MMT of outstanding sales. That takes total net commitments for 2014/15 to 26.9 MMT, which is 60.4% of the USDA target for the season. The USDA also announced 210,000 MT of corn sold to Japan for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. Whilst the corn market continues to do it's best to ignore the alarming slump in crude oil values, they can hardly be considered to be a supportive factor. Crude began 2015 where it left off 2014, in the red. Tonight's official NYMEX close of $52.69/barrel is the lowest close in more than five and a half years. UkrAgroConsult trimmed their forecast for Russia's 2014/15 corn exports from 3.8 MMT to 3.0 MMT. They also see lower wheat and barley exports than previously expected. US dollar strength remains a negative influence for the entire US grains sector. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $4.04 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents. For the week Mar 14 corn lost 19 cents, or 4.6%, in value.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day, and for the week, across all three exchanges. The best that can be said of today's performance is that wheat did at least manage to close reasonably well above session lows. Weekly export sales of 354,100 MT for 2014/15 (there were also sales of 18,000 MT for 2015/16) were fair given the recent performance, but hardly pulled up any trees. Actual shipments of 150,100 MT were however poor, being down 61 percent from the previous week and 62 percent below the prior 4-week average. If we are being kind, we can put this down to it being a holiday week. If we are not, then we can put it down to the strong dollar simply making US wheat too expensive compared to other origins. Total shipments for the season so far are now at 13.3 MMT, with a further 5.2 MMT worth of outstanding sales. That takes net 2014/15 commitments to 18.5 MMT, which is 72.5% of the USDA's target for the season. There's talk of Pakistan looking to enter the world wheat market as a seller. The Ukraine Ministry reported that 18% of winter crops in the country are in poor condition, which is 10 points above a year ago. UkrAgroConsult trimmed their outlook on Russian 2014/15 wheat exports by 2.3 MMT to 20 MMT, and reduced their forecast for barley shipments by 1 MMT to 3.3 MMT. China are due to auction 2 MMT of government owned wheat stocks starting Tuesday next week. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.81 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17, down 9 1/2 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.11, down 11 cents. For the week Chicago wheat lost 25 1/2 cents, or 4.8%; KCBT wheat was down 27 1/4 cents; MGEX wheat ended 20 1.2 cents lower.