Chicago Grains Fall, Led By Wheat
08/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed 7-8 cents lower. The USDA announced 118,000 MT of beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. Weekly export sales for beans came in better than expected (again) at 910,600 MT for 2014/15 shipment. These were up 49 percent from the previous week and 39 percent above the prior 4-week average. Shipments of 1.6 MMT (with China taking 1 MMT) were also pretty good for a holiday week. The US has now already shipped 29.64 MMT of soybeans so far this season, with a further 13.55 MMT of outstanding sales remaining. That takes total commitments past 90% of the USDA target for the season, one which is only 18 weeks old. The trade is now starting to focus on Monday's WASDE and stocks numbers from the USDA. The very strong pace of US soybean sales so far this season mean that US 2014/15 ending stocks are seen at 393 million bushels versus 410 million from the USDA last month. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.45, down 7 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.48 1/4, down 8 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $361.30, down $7.20; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.58, up 60 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small losses. Weakness in wheat didn't help corn's cause today, and neither did continued strength in the US dollar. Weekly export sales came in at only 387,600 MT for 2014/15 – a marketing-year low – and were down 57 percent from the previous week and 63 percent below the prior 4-week average. That fell beneath trade expectations, even for a holiday shortened week. There were also sales of 210,000 MT for 2015/16 shipment for Japan. The USDA also reported another strong week of sorghum sales and shipments - all for China once more. US sorghum commitments were already running at 103% of the USDA target for the entire season. China have also been a featured buyer of large volumes of US DDGS of late. The weather is improving in Argentina. "Crop prospects have improved in Argentina from a heavy soaking rainfall last week. Cordoba received 50-100 millimeters of rain (2-4 inches) relieving a very severe drought. This is Argentina's top farm province producing 38% of national corn and 29% of soybeans," said Martell Crop Projections. Cordoba is set to receive a further 1 to 2.5 inches of welcome rainfall in the next 5-7 days, they added. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.94 1/4, down 2 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $4.02 3/4, down 2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across all three exchanges, on the notion that US wheat is simply too expensive compared to other origins. Weekly export sales of only 151,000 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year – a marketing-year low – did little to change that view. These were down 57 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. Even if it was a holiday week, that was a pretty dire performance. The strong US dollar, which is forecast to appreciate further in 2015, is doing little to help the US export cause. Egypt's GACS bought 180 TMT of French wheat for Feb 8-18 shipment in their tender. US wheat was nowhere to be seen, ditto Russia and Ukraine origin material. There's now talk of a possible Ukraine wheat export quota being introduced this season, to protect the local market should the Russian export duty switch extra demand to that origin. Concerns about possible winter kill issues for US, Russian and Ukraine wheat have been pushed to the back of traders' minds, as a clearer picture of what damage, if any, may have been caused won't be known for many weeks yet. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.67, down 12 1/2 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.07 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.08 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents.
