Chicago Grains Lower Across The Board
27/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. Dr Cordonnier reported the first new crop boat of the season loading at Brazil's Paranagua port, picking up 61,700 MT of soybeans for Thailand. He cut his forecast for Brazil's 2014/15 crop by 0.5 MMT to 93 MMT (although still a record), but raised the outlook on Argentina by 1 MMT to a record 56 MMT. Mato Grosso farmers are 45% sold on new crop beans versus 55% this time last year, he said. Nationally they are 31% sold versus 43% a year ago. Early soybean yields so far are averaging a respectable 52 sacks/ha, which is the equivalent of 45.2 bu/acre. Oil World are in the same ballpark as Dr Cordonnier, estimating the Brazilian crop at 93 MMT and output in Argentina at 54.5 MMT. The USDA announced another Chinese cancellation (120 TMT) of US soybeans, but also confirmed 111 TMT sold to unknown under the daily reporting system. The Congressional Budgetary Office forecast US 2015 soybean plantings at 86 million acres, a record area and up 2.3 million, or 2.75%, from last year. Yields however are not estimated to be as good as they were in 2014, putting production at 3.829 billion bushels, down 140 million, or 3.5%, on last year. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.73 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.81 1/4, down 9 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $336.60, down $2.30; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.17, up 9 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents lower. The Congressional Budgetary Office forecast US 2015 corn plantings at 89 million acres versus 90.6 million a year ago. They see production at 13.5 billion bushels, down nearly 5% from 14.2 billion in 2014. Dr Cordonnier was unchanged on both his Brazilian and Argentine corn crop estimates at 74 MMT and 21 MMT respectively. South Korea's FLC bought 57,000 MT of optional origin corn for May shipment. South Korea also bought 110,000 MT of US, South American, EU corn for July shipment. CEC estimated South Africa’s 2015 corn area at 2.656 million ha, down 1.2% from a year ago. Ukraine corn continues to undercut US origin material, helped by their weak domestic currency, said Benson Quinn. Ukraine have now exported 8.63 MMT of corn so far this season, and are expected to ship out 16.5 MMT by the end of June, according to the USDA. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimate the country's exportable surplus at more than 20 MMT this season. It remains to be seen how "safe" a seller Ukraine are regarded now that the rebels have reached as far as the port of Mariupol, which ships around 1 MMT of grains annually. The US Energy Dept will release the latest US ethanol production numbers tomorrow, last week's output was 979,000 barrels/day. The trade is expecting a small drop in output this time round. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.89 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges once more. Wheat can't seem to buy a rally at the moment. Chicago wheat hasn't closed higher for 15 trading sessions. The US weather outlook for the main bread wheat states is beneficial. "The 7-day forecast calls for heavy rain, well above normal, in a wide swath of the United States. Kansas wheat farms are expecting at least 0.50 inch of rainfall, while Oklahoma would receive 1-1.5 inch of rain. Texas has a very wet forecast the expected rainfall from 1 to 1.75 inches. Soaking rains would extend from the Southern Great Plains through the Mid South and northeast to New England," said Martell Crop Projections. Texas wheat is currently rated 42% good to excellent (down 1% from a week ago) and 17% poor to very poor (up 1% from a week ago). Russian winter wheat is in trouble, with 40% of the crop in the Volgograd region and 32% of the crop in Rostov said to have failed. Ukraine announced that they are to limit wheat exports to 1.3 MMT in the Jan/Jun period, including a maximum of 900 TMT in Q1 of 2015. Around 500 TMT of that has probably already been shipped. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of feed barley in a tender, said to be most likely from Romania, for June-July shipment. Bahrain are tendering for around 30,000 MT of wheat for March/April shipment. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.19, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.50 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.66 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents.
