Chicago Grains Give Up Some Of Tuesday's Gains
04/02/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed lower, giving up a fair chunk of yesterday's gains. Soybean production estimates in Brazil are getting trimmed a little, and starting to centre around the 93 MMT mark versus the USDA's January estimate of 95.5 MMT. However in Argentina, forecasts are rising, with some now seeing their crop at around 57 MMT versus only 55 MMT from the USDA last month. Either way, both numbers would be a record volume. The USDA will update us with their February forecasts next Tuesday. Also due next Thursday are the latest estimates from Brazil's Conab. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are only around 200-400 TMT, with the market expecting that demand for US beans is finally showing some sign of slowing up as interest switches to Brazil. Meal sales are expected to be around 120-150 TMT. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.72, down 15 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.78 3/4, down 14 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $332.70, down $7.90; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.59, down 21 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents lower, which wasn't too bad considering that crude oil crashed back below $50/barrel having closed at over $53/barrel last night. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production down 7,000 barrels/day to 972,000 bpd. US crude oil stocks were pegged at the highest level for this time of year in at least 80 years, which is hardly bullish. A US oil refinery workers strike, said to be the largest since 1980, should soon start to cut into those stocks though. Brazil said that it had exported 3.2 MMT of corn in January versus 2.9 MMT in January 2014. "Everything else being considered, corn was able to defend its current price level relatively well," said Benson Quinn. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 800,000 MT to 1 MMT. As with soybeans, the market is thinking that the USDA might be a little high with their current Brazilian corn crop estimate, and maybe a bit low on Argentina. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges, with Minneapolis suffering the largest losses. There's talk that Egypt may be in the market to buy specifically US wheat soon, using a $100 million grant given to it by, appropriately, the US. Given that they've been booking significant quantities of French wheat lately, it may be that they are also looking for some US wheat to up the quality a little. Stats Canada estimated Canadian Dec 31 all wheat stocks at 24.82 MMT, slightly below the average trade guess of 25 MMT, and down from 28.68 MMT a year previously. South Korea's CJ reportedly bought 50,000 MT of Australian wheat for June shipment. "Field moisture has improved with generous rain and snow this winter" across Kansas, Texas and Washington - three of the leading US bread wheat states, although Oklahoma remains dry, said Martell Crop Projections. Libya failed to make a purchase in their 50,000 MT wheat tender, apparently due to payment issues. Tomorrow's weekly export sales report is expected to come in at around 300-500 TMT. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11, down 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.52 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.66, down 10 cents.
