Chicago Grains Mostly Higher Ahead Of USDA Report
09/02/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 5-6 cents higher. For all the talk of demand switching to South America, the USDA announced 120,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment. They also reported export inspections of almost 1.5 MMT. That was down on 1.7 MMT a week ago, but not drastically so. Cumulative year-to-date inspections are now nearly 39 MMT, which is 18% up on this time a year ago. IMEA said that in Brazil's leading producing state of Mato Grosso the soybean harvest is 17% complete versus 10.4% a week ago and 21.7% a year ago. They estimated yields at the equivalent of 46.8 bu/acre versus 46.23 bu/acre a year ago. AgRural estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop at 91.9 MMT, down from a previous estimate of 95.0 MMT, due to dry weather in January. "The key centre west area (of Mato Grosso) has received only 59% of normal rainfall the past 30 days, despite an uptick in showers. The soil moisture deficit is still 131 mm in the top soybean state, reflecting intense drought in January," said Martell Crop Projections. "The February 9-15 forecast is dry in Mato Grosso and the tropics, at large. However, the outlook for South Brazil is wet. Temperatures are expected to be 2-3 F above normal in Mato Grosso and the tropics, at large. A high rate of evaporation would result from the heat worsening moisture stress in soybeans. South Brazil temperatures would be near average, however, with frequent thunderstorms and heavy rainfall," they added. The trade is now looking to tomorrow's WASDE report from the USDA. US 2014/15 soybean ending stocks are expected to be reduced from last month's 410 million bushels to around 398 million. Argentine production is expected to be raised from last month's 55 MMT, compensating for a reduction in Brazil from the 95.5 MMT forecast in January. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.78 1/2, up 5 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.85, up 5 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $329.60, up $0.20; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.01, up 19 points.
Corn: The corn market closed closed around 5 cents higher heading into tomorrow's USDA report. Weekly export inspections of just over 700 TMT were in line with trade forecasts. "The pace of inspections is expected to pick up. Over the last 5 reporting periods inspections have averaged 700,000 MT. Moving forward, inspections will have to average around 1 MMT weekly to meet the current year-end USDA expectation," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Crude oil closed higher, up near $53/barrel, adding some support. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014/15 corn imports at 3.0 MMT, up slightly from a previous estimate of 2.7 MMT. The USDA are currently only at 2 MMT. They estimated China’s 2014/15 sorghum imports at 6.4 MMT, more than double those of corn and up more than 50% on 2013/14 imports of 4.16 MMT. Reuters report that Cargill said on Friday that it is suspending deliveries to their corn mill in Fort Dodge, Iowa due to significant mechanical failure. The French government said that France had exported 3.1 MMT of corn in the first five months of 2014/15 (Jul/Nov), up from 2.5 MMT a year previously. APK Inform said that Ukraine's corn exports via seaports last week were 721.7 TMMT, 86% of all grain shipments, and up sharply from 198.2 TMT the week previously. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the early Argentine corn harvest is underway in one or two places, despite that fact that planting is not yet 100% done nationally. As far as tomorrow's USDA report goes, the trade isn't expecting much change to US 2014/15 corn ending stocks from the 1.877 billion bushels estimated a month ago. World corn carryout is also expected to be little different to the 189.15 MMT forecast in January. Argentine corn production might be raised by around 0.5 MMT from last month's 22.0 MMT forecast, and Brazilian output could go the other way, seen down around 0.5 MMT from the 75.0 MMT predicted in January. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.91 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.99 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, up a little in Chicago and Kansas and a little lower in Minneapolis. Weekly export inspections came in at close to 400,000 MT, which was at the top end of trade expectations. Year to date inspections of 15.5 MMT are down more than 30% on this time a year ago though, indicating just how much the strong dollar and competitive world offers elsewhere are hurting US wheat export prospects. The USDA currently forecast US wheat exports in 2014/15 down "only" 19% year-on-year. The Canadian Grain Commission said that the country had exported 20.9 MMT of grains, oilseeds and pulses in the first half of 2014/15. That total includes 8.1 MMT of wheat (excluding durum), a 7% increase on a year ago, and 2.7 MMT of durum wheat, up 21% versus last year. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014/15 barley imports at 5.6 MMT, up more than 55% versus 3.61 MMT in 2013/14. Russia's Ag Ministry said that the country exported 177 TMT of grains in the Feb 1-4 period, including 68 TMT of wheat and 89 TMT of barley. They said that takes Jul 1 - Feb 4 exports to 23.5 MMT of grain, of which 18.5 MMT is wheat and 3.4 MMT barley. They estimate Russia's 2014/15 grain exports at 28-30 MMT. They also said that it would be "inappropriate" to raise the prices on offer in their current intervention purchase programme. IKAR said that the proportion of winter grains that are in poor to very poor condition is much higher than normal. Plantings were however up 12% versus a year previously when autumn conditions were very wet, they noted. France said that it had exported 1.4 MMT of soft wheat in December, which is 20% down on a year ago. The French government estimated the nation's Jan 1 grain stocks at 22.7 MMT versus 19.6 MMT a year ago. Turkey bought 60,000 MT of durum wheat in a tender. The Philippines bought 93,000 MT of feed wheat for Jun/Jul shipment in a tender. Tomorrow's USDA report isn't expected to offer little change to US or world wheat ending stocks from last month's estimates. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.29 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.63 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.76, down 1 cent.
