Nogger's Blog

05/03/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed the best part of 10 cents lower. Weekly export sales of 499,500 MT for 2014/15 and a small quantity of new crop were actually towards the top end of trade expectations. US exporters are 98% sold versus the USDA target for the season. Actual weekly shipments were 768,200 MT, down 30 percent from the previous week and 50 percent below the prior 4-week average however. The primary destination was China (490,600 MT). Meal sales were 130,200 MT for 2014/15 plus 28,400 MT for 2015/16. Actual shipments of soymeal during the week were strong at 259,800 MT, and were up 20 percent from the previous week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left their Argentine soybean production estimate unchanged at a record 57 MMT, despite noting widespread flooding in Córdoba and Santa Fe, as highlighted yesterday by the Rosario Exchange. They did however say that they may adjust their estimate in the coming weeks when the affect of any yield losses could be better assessed. Brazil upped their interest rates to a 6-year high of 12.75% overnight in an effort to combat inflation. The FAO's AMIS estimated the global 2014/15 soybean crop at 314 MMT, up 1 MMT from their last forecast and more than 10% up on a year previously. Ending stocks were pegged at 42 MMT, unchanged from last time, but 40% up on a year ago. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecasts for the Brazilian (93.5 MMT) and Argentine (57.3 MMT) soybean crops. The trade is now starting to eye next week's USDA WASDE report, and also the Mar 31 provisional planting intentions numbers. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.79 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.85 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $334.40, up $0.30; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.43, down 60 points.

Corn: The corn market scraped its way a nominal cent or so higher, despite downwards pressure from beans and wheat. Weekly export sales of 828,100 MT for 2014/15 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were also sales of 158,700 MT for 2015/16. That was at the top end of trade estimates for combined sales of 700,000 MT to 1 MMT, US exporters are now 80% sold versus the USDA target for the season, compared to 71% sold typically and 77% this time last year. As US soybean exports slow down, there's more free capacity to ship corn. Actual weekly US corn shipments of 1,378,800 MT - a marketing-year high - were up 59 percent from the previous week and 91 percent above the prior 4-week average. That clearly added some support today. Private exporters also reported to the USDA export sales of 108,000 MT of grain sorghum to unknown. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that this year's Argentine corn harvest is only 2.7% complete, up just one point on a week ago. Things have been held up by heavy rain in many parts of the corn belt, especially citing the states of Córdoba and Santa Fe. Nevertheless, they remained unchanged on their production outlook at 22.5 MMT, a 16.6% decline on a year ago. MDA CropCast were also unchanged on their outlook for both Argentina (23.1 MMT) and also Brazil (75.7 MMT). They cut their forecast for South Africa by 1.9 MMT to 11 MMT however due to continued dryness issues. The FAO's AMIS raised their forecast for the world 2014/15 corn crop by 2 MMT to 1020 MMT, which is now 11 MMT more than in 2013/14. They also upped ending stocks by 2 MMT to 210 MMT, a 19.3% rise versus last season. Macquairie said that Ukraine corn production this year could fall 15% to 23 MMT due to farmers' financial problems, reduced fertiliser applications and use of sprays etc. FranceAgriMer estimated French Feb 1 corn stocks to be 38% higher than a year ago at 7.41 MMT. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.82 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/2, up 1 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market extended recent losses, closing around 10-12 cents lower. The firmer US dollar didn't help, even if weekly export sales of 469,600 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year were up 43 percent from the previous week and 34 percent above the prior 4-week average. These sales did however include material purchased by Egypt using a special line of credit extended to it by the US that were previously known about. There were also sales of 38,000 MT for 2015/16. Actual shipments themselves of 485,600 MT were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The FAO's AMIS raised their forecast for the 2014/15 world wheat crop by 3 MMT to a new record 727 MMT, up 1.5% from a year previously. Ending stocks were increased 7 MMT to 199 MMT, a 3.6% increase versus 2013/14 with much larger inventories projected in Asia and Europe. Production in 2015/16 is seen falling only modestly, down 1% to 720 MMT. Lower output in Europe, Russia and Ukraine will be offset by increases elsewhere. Kazakhstan's crop will rise 8% to 13.5 MMT, Australia's is seen up 10.2% to 26 MMT, whilst Canada's will rise 2.4% to 30 MMT. There will also be a small increase in US wheat production of 1.6% to 56 MMT, they predicted. They don't see too many problem areas around the world in 2015. "In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat conditions are generally favourable and the crop is mostly dormant. In the EU, the crop is generally in good condition. In the US, the crop is progressing normally though there is concern in the southern Great Plains due to dry conditions. In China, conditions remain favourable. In Russia and Ukraine, the crop is dormant and conditions are mostly favourable despite the earlier dry conditions during crop establishment in the fall. In India, conditions are mostly favourable," they said. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.81 1/4, down 12 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.14, down 9 1/2 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.47, down 10 1/4 cents.