Chicago Grains Mixed, Wheat Rises On US Weather Concerns
16/03/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower in low volume trade. There wasn't a huge amount of fresh news. Weekly export inspections came in at 583,944 MT, down from 625,713 MT last week and well below 950,885 MT a year ago. Cumulative shipments are still 4.2 MMT higher than a year ago though. The Feb NOPA crush came in at 146.97 million bushels, down from down from 162.7 million but up versus 141.6 million last February and a second highest ever volume for that particular short month. The South American harvest rumbles on, and they are now past halfway done in Brazil. Copa Cogeca pegged the EU 2015 rapeseed crop down nearly 7% on a year ago at a 3-year low of 21.95 MMT. EU rapeseed consumption will total nearly 26 MMT in the current season, according to the USDA. That will mean increased imports nest season, although the nearest regular major supplier, Ukraine, will also have a reduced crop this year by the looks of things. That could mean more rapeseed being sought from farther afield, and possibly increased soybean demand as an alternative. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.69 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.73 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $323.70, down $3.30; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.39, down 10 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small losses in a "no news" sort of a day. Safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso is said to be 89% complete, up from 76% a week ago. Weekly corn export inspections only came in at 735,311 MT, well below the 1.18 million MT from the previous week and also below the 976,742 MT for the same week last year. Sorghum export inspections were very strong, as that grain continues to find good buying interest from China as a corn alternative. Copa Cogeca estimated the EU-28 corn crop this year down 4.6% on a year ago at 68.92 MMT, although that would still be the second highest on record. Production in leading nation France is seen 6% lower at 15.9 MMT. Output from Europe's second largest producer, Romania, will slip 7% to 10.5 MMT, whilst third biggest nation, Hungary, will be around unchanged at 8.9 MMT. Ukraine said that they'd exported 25.65 MMT of grains so far this season, of which 12.05 MMT (47%) was corn. Russia said that they'd shipped out a very similar volume, 25.15 MMT, although the proportion of corn (at 1.65 MMT is only 6.6%) is much lower. Both countries are expected to major on corn exports for the remainder of the season. South Korea is tendering for 3 cargoes of optional origin corn for October shipment. May 15 Corn is at $3.79, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Corn is at $3.87, down 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, with double digit gains across the nears on all three exchanges, as weather concerns prompted short-covering. As we have seen before with the wheat market, once fund positions have built up a sizeable short, such as the one they have held recently, it sometimes doesn't take a lot to get them spooked into closing these out. "Areas of significant winterkill are being reported from west-central, northwest and north-central Kansas, as well as southcentral Nebraska," said Arlan Suderman of Farm Futures Magazine. There are also said to be dryness issues on the US southern Plains. Support also came from fairly decent export inspections of 519,592 MT, up sharply from 376,210 MT the previous wee and also above the same week a year ago. Copa Cogeca estimated the 2015 EU-28 soft wheat crop down 6.5% year-on-year at 138.42 MMT. Whilst output in France is seen around unchanged levels (Friday's crop ratings there at 91% good to very good were the highest in 5 years), significantly lower production is expected from Germany (down 9.2%), the UK (down 15.9%) and Poland (down 14.3%). Morocco said that it had imported 3.14 MMT of grains in the first seven months of 2014/15, which is 69% more than a year previously. That includes 1.2 MMT of wheat (excl durum), up from only 130 TMT in 2013/14. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.14, up 12 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.55, up 15 3/4 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.81, up 13 1/2 cents.
