Nogger's Blog

23/03/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 8-10 cents higher, helped by the weaker US dollar. Weekly export inspections of 519,464 MT were relatively "ordinary" and appear to confirm that demand is finally switching to Brazil. That was down from 584,532 MT last week and below 736,520 MT for same week a year ago. Still, US exporters have already shipped 90% of USDA’s target for the year. China reported Feb soybean imports (traditionally a quiet month) at 4.26 MMT, but still down 11% from Feb 2014. Argentine markets are closed today and tomorrow for a holiday. South Korea's NOFI were said to have bought 55,000 MT of South American soymeal for September shipment. Ag Canada forecast this year's Canadian rapeseed crop at 16 MMT, unchanged from previously and up 400,000 MT versus a year ago. MARS forecast EU rapeseed yields to fall 9.4% this year, with German yields down 14.1% and those in Hungary set to slump more than 20%. The trade is now looking to next week's planting intentions numbers from the USDA. Last year's US soybean area was 83.7 million acres. The trade is forecasting this rising to a record 87.0-87.5 million this year, although the USDA actually went for a small decline to 83.5 million in their February Outlook Forum. Also due on Mar 31 are the quarterly stocks numbers. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.83 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.88, up 10 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $327.30, up $3.30; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.15, up 47 points.

Corn: The corn market ended around 5 cents higher as the US dollar fell to its lowest level since the first week in March. US weekly export inspections of 994,666 MT were also friendly being well above the previous week. US exporters have now shipped 47% of the USDA’s target for the year. Typically though that would be around 52% normally at this time. Sorghum shipments remain strong, especially into China as a corn replacement. These are already 71% of USDA’s target for the year versus 55% typically at this time. Chinese Customs data shows February corn imports of 574,000 MT from Ukraine, and only 13,600 MT from the US. That means that around 95% of China's corn imports were of Ukraine origin last month, and that these were nearly three time the size of imports from Ukraine a year previously. Russia said that they exported 531 TMT of corn in the Feb 1 - Mar 18 period, which is 34% less than a year ago. Their corn exports so far this season are a little under 1.8 MMT. Ukraine's corn exports meanwhile are well in excess of 12 MMT so far. The US attaché in South Africa is now forecasting their corn crop at only 10.4 MMT, more than 1 MMT below the official USDA estimate of 11.5 MMT. Zambia said that they plan to export 800,000 MT of white (food grade) corn to neighbouring countries after producing their largest ever harvest. MARS forecast EU-28 corn yields to decline 4.3% to 7.19 MT/ha this year. Trade ideas for next week's US corn planting intentions are around 88.0-88.5 million acres versus 90.6 million a year ago. May 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.98, up 5 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, but at only around the middle of the day's trading range. The trade remains concerned over US winter wheat conditions, especially with the fund community having built up a sizeable short position in Chicago wheat. "Dry field conditions are a threat to the US winter wheat yields for the 2015 harvest, as 3 of the 4 leading wheat states are struggling from drought. A 1.8 inch moisture deficit has built up in central Kansas in recent weeks, while Oklahoma has received just 20-40% of normal rainfall over the past 45 days. These are the top 2 bread wheat states making up 54% of hard red winter wheat all together," said Martell Crop Projections. There's also now the threat of sub-zero temperatures to hit the central and part of the southern Plains later this week. Minneapolis (spring) wheat markets thus posted less impressive gains that the winter wheat markets of Chicago and Kansas today. Kansas wheat was rated 41% good to excellent today, unchanged from a week ago. Weekly US all wheat export inspections of 511,069 MT were fairly respectable. Russia said that it had exported 829 TMT of wheat since the export duty was introduced on Feb 1, which is 34% down versus the same period a year ago. Bangladesh are in for 100 TMT of wheat. There are some reports of significant damage being done to Indian wheat, with heavy rains and hail flattening crops just prior to harvesting. MARS forecast EU-28 soft wheat yields down 4.8% at 5.29 MT/ha this year. Ag Canada is projecting 2015/16 wheat production there at 29.5 MMT, which is down a little from previous forecasts. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.34, up 4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.74 1/2, up 5 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.90, up 1/2 cent.