Chicago Markets Mixed, Wheat Up For Fifth Day In A Row
12/03/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on disappointing weekly export sales of only 167,900 MT for 2014/15, which were down 66 percent from the previous week and 70 percent below the prior 4-week average. There were also net sales of 30,800 MT for 2015/16. Old crop cancellations of 263,700 MT helped drag sales for 2014/15 into the mire. Even so, cumulative sales for the current marketing year are still 98% of the USDA target versus 93% typically at this time. Meal sales were 101,300 MT for 2014/15, down 22 percent from the previous week and down 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cumulative meal sales are 78% of the USDA estimate for the season. "While meeting the export expectations will happen, I don’t know how or when the demand justifies tightening the balance sheet to levels that would support prices above the current levels," said Benson Quinn. There's talk of Europe switching meal purchases to Brazil. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop by 850 TMT to 93.34 MMT, but lowered their outlook on Argentina by 1.22 MMT to 56.12 MMT on wetness issues in the northwest of the country. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.86 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.90 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $343.50, down $2.20; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.76, down 21 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents lower. As with beans, weekly export sales disappointed, dragged down by large cancellations (343,300 MT) from unknown destinations. The weekly total came in at 418,000 MT for 2014/15, down 50 percent from the previous week and 52 percent below the prior 4-week average. There were also a couple of sales totalling 96,400 MT for 2015/16. Weekly sorghum sales of 433,000 MT for both marketing years almost matched total corn sales this week. Old crop corn sales are still 79% of the USDA target for the season versus 73% typically at this time. The USDA's FAS in Saudi Arabia said that the country would import 4.5 MMT of corn in 2015/16, a 29% hike on this season's total. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for this year's Brazilian corn crop by 1.21 MMT to 76.91 MMT, and upped Argentina by 430 TMT to 23.15 MMT. There were rumours that the US had purchased 2 cargoes of Brazilian corn for December delivery, although Benson Quinn suggested that this "seemed like a non-starter". It was reported that UkrLandFarming, a large Ukraine agricompany, would leave 110,000 ha of it's landbank fallow this year, a 250% increase on the area left unplanted a year ago and 16.4% of it's total arable area. The implications are there for all to see. especially relating to the smaller producer. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.82 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher for a fifth straight day. The US dollar retreated from 12 year highs, which may have helped a bit. Weekly export sales were pretty good at 445,200 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year. That was down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The previous week's total had been inflated by HRW wheat sales to Egypt under a special credit agreement with the US you will recall. This week's sales were unusually headed by 115.00 MT to China. There were also sales of 48,000 MT for 2015/16. There's still talk of dryness issues on the Plains. Japan bought 109,200 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in a tender. South Korea bought 47,000 MT of Australian milling wheat. Tunisia are tendering for 126,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat and 75,000 MT of optional feed barley. The USDA's FAS in Saudi Arabia said that the country would import a record 3.8 MMT of wheat in 2015/16, up 8% from this season. SovEcon said on Twitter that they expect Russia's 2015/16 grain crop to only total 85-92 MMT, versus the official target of 100 MMT and 105.3 MMT last year. They are currently forecasting wheat production to account for 47-53 MMT of that total. Ukraine increased the proportion of this year's winter grain crop rated in good to satisfactory by one point to 83%, although that's still well down on this time last year. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.13 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.46 1/2, up 8 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.56 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents.
