Chicago Corn And Beans Rebound, Wheat Still Can't Buy A Friend Though
14/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans reversed yesterday's losses, and broke out of a run of six losing sessions in the past seven, to close with double digit gains. The March NOPA crush report, due out tomorrow, might reveal a record crush for the month, according to Benson Quinn. The average trade estimate for that is 155.26 million bushels, with one estimate as high as 159.5 million. The February crush was 146.970 million and in March 2014 the crush was 153.84 million (a record for the month). Brazil are well advanced in harvesting their anticipated record 2014/15 soybean crop, and things are also now getting going in neighbouring Argentina. Fears of crop losses in the latter due to excessive rains and flooding in some areas have now subsided. "Argentine farmers continue to report outstanding soybean yields and the question now is how fast they will sell their record soybean crop," said Dr Cordonnier. "The government of course wants the farmers to sell as quickly as possible in order to collect the 35% export tax on soybeans. But it remains to be seen how aggressive they will be in trying to force farmers to sell," he added. Argentine farmers still have around 17% of their 2013/14 soybean harvest to sell, along with 80% of this year's crop, according to official Ag Ministry estimates. Oil World estimated the EU 2015 rapeseed crop down 11% on last year's record at 21.5 MMT. Production in Germany will drop nearly 16% to 5.3 MMT, they predict. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.60 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.64, up 11 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $313.60, up $4.80; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.30, up 26 points.
Corn: The corn market recovered around half of yesterday's losses, in a mini "Turnaround Tuesday" reversal. Wheat prices continuing to fall was a negative influence however. Continued wetness in Southern US states is delaying corn planting, and may cause some switching away from corn into beans it is being suggested. Macquaire forecast US corn prices in Q2 of 2015 averaging $3.60/bu, rising to $3.70/bu in Q3 and $4.00/bu in Q4. They also predict that upwards trend to continue in 2016, with Q1 prices averaging $4.20/bu next year, rising to $4.25/bu in Q2. The Argentine grower is said to be 36% sold on his 2014/15 corn crop, up from 21% this time a year ago. South Africa is said to be importing Argentine yellow corn following significant crop losses there this year. Ukraine seaports exported almost 45 TMT of grains last week, with the vast majority (80%) being corn. Russia's corn seed imports were down nearly 38% last month compared to a year ago. This is probably due to the recent slump in value of the Russian rouble, forcing farmers to cut corners wherever they can. APK Inform recently forecast Russian growers to plant a record corn acreage this year, up 2.8% on last year. Even so, if much of what they are going to plant is inferior home grown seed than production is likely to fall. The USDA's FAS in Europe forecast an EU-28 2015 corn crop of 67.7 MMT versus the record 73.7 MMT produced last year. They see Europe's 2015/16 corn import needs rising 50% to 12 MMT. The Argentine government are expected to grant 1-2 MMT worth of corn export licences in the next few days. China's CNGOIC estimated that the country would import 8.1 MMT of sorghum this season, up from only 4.6 MMT in 2013/14. May 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 3 cents; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.81, up 3 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market slipped back below $5/bushel in Chicago to close at its lowest level since Mar 10. Some are suggesting that rains across Kansas and Oklahoma this past few days might revive a flagging US winter wheat crop. Others are saying it's a case of "too little, too late" and that the damage is already done. I guess we won't know the real answer until the combines start rolling, and that day isn't really that far away. With 19% of US winter wheat now rated poor to very poor, among the lowest 25% in the last 29 years according to Martell Crop Projections, the crop needs to improve rapidly. "If drenching rain materialises, as predicted, plump kernels would develop on grain heads increasing test weights that boost the yield. However, significant damage to the (Kansas) wheat yield has already been done from prolonged spring drought," they said. Argentine farmers are said to be almost 66% sold on their 2014/15 wheat crop versus 45% committed this time a year ago. The Argentine government are expected to authorise 1-2 MMT of wheat export licences in the next week or so. South Korea's Daehan bought 45,400 MT of US milling wheat for August shipment. South Korea's KFA bought 24,800 MT of US wheat for Aug-Sept shipment. Japan are tendering for 109,005 MT of milling wheat for June shipment in their usual combo of US, Canadian and Australian origin. Nothing overly special there. China were said to be auctioning 830,000 MT of wheat from reserves today. Russia's seaports exported 190.5 TMT of wheat last week, say APK Inform. Ukraine seaports shipped out only 89.5 TMT, they add. Rusagrotrans see Russia's April wheat exports at around 400 TMT, down from 534 TMT last month. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.97, down 5 1/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.21 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.52, down 8 cents.
