Chicago Grains All Post Weekly Losses, Despite Friday Rally In Wheat
10/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed lower on the day and for the week, with oil ending higher on both. The USDA announced 200,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown, split 140,000 MT for 2014/15 delivery and 60,000 MT for 2015/16 delivery. Other than that though, there wasn't a lot of supportive news. The dollar bounced higher again, and global equities are posting new highs, enticing investment money away from the grains. The S&P 500 closed within 1% of it's Mar 2 all time high tonight. The DJIA was also higher and in Europe the FTSE100 and German DAX30 closed at record highs, whilst the French CAC40 hit a 7-year high. The Brazilian soybean harvest is now well past halfway done, and the Argentine harvest is gathering pace. Conab raised its forecast for Brazil's 2014/15 soybean crop to a record 94.28 MMT from the 93.26 MMT estimated in March. They have 2014/15 Brazilian soybean exports estimated at 46.8 MMT, unchanged from previously and up 2.4% from 45.7 MMT in 2013/14. The Philippines were said to have bought 115,000 MT of Argentine soymeal for July-September shipment, reportedly traded at a $30/tonne discount to US material. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.51 1/2, down 2 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.56, down 2 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $309.20, down $2.90; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.09, up 25 points. For the week, front month beans lost 34 1/2 cents, with meal shedding $18.10 and oil gaining a modest 5 points. The new crop bean:corn price ratio ended the week at 2.34:1 versus 2.37:1 a week ago.
Corn: The corn market edged a little lower on the day, and finished the week almost 10 cents easier. Conab raised its forecast for Brazil's 2014/15 corn crop to 78.99 MMT from 78.21 MMT in March, estimating a first harvest of 30.30 MMT and a second one of 48.69 MMT. The USDA only estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 75 MMT yesterday. South Korea's NOFI bought 194,000 MT of optional origin corn for November shipment. China are said to have bought 2.0 MMT of corn from the Ukraine so far in 2015, around half of which has already been shipped. APK Inform said that Russia will plant a record 2.8 million ha of corn this year. Europe's corn imports are in decline. Brussels awarded 79 TMT of corn import certificates this past week, taking the volume granted so far this season to 7.14 MMT, down 34% from 10.85 MMT a year ago. The Environmental Protection Agency were said to have settled an oil industry lawsuit and agreed to release its proposed biofuel use targets for this year by Jun 1 and formally set the ethanol blending mandates for this year and last year by Nov 30. The USDA are expected to release their first weekly estimates for US corn planting progress on Monday. Significant planting delays are being reported in the South/Mississippi Delta region. Weather forecasts continue to look wet for the Corn Belt and the South for the next 10 days, with excessive amounts possible in the Delta/mid-South. These developments seem to be keeping the corn market from slipping too much lower for the time being. May 15 Corn closed at $3.77, down 1 cent; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.84 3/4, down 1 cent. For the week May 15 corn fell 9 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on the day, but lower for the week. Dryness in hardcore US breadwheat areas of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas was the reason cited by many for today's little rally. It may also have been down to some profit-taking on shorts ahead of the weekend. Last week's USDA winter wheat ratings of 44% good to excellent surprised the trade a little, with the market expecting something more like 40-42%. It will be interesting therefore to see what they have to say in this regard on Monday night. Elsewhere, Russia said that spring grains had been planted on 1.2 million hectares, or 3.9% of the planned area. That's down a little from the 1.3 million ha planted this time a year ago. Customs data shows that Russian seaports shipped out 5.1 MMT of grains in Jan/Mar, up 6.9% compared to the same period a year ago. Export progress is certainly slowing now that the new duty on wheat is in place. Warships from the Saudi-led coalition are said to have blocked a vessel carrying 47,250 MT of wheat from entering a Yemeni port, demanding that the United Nations first guarantees that the cargo will not go to military personnel. Morocco said it will hike the import duty on wheat from 17.5% to 75% effective May 1. South Korea's KFMC are tendering for 24,000 MT of wheat for Aug-Sept shipment. Jordan were said to have bought 100,000 MT of feed barley for October shipment. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that farmers there had planted 1.8 million ha of early spring grains, or 77% of the planned total planted area. That's down significantly from 2.4 million ha a year ago, and includes 1.3 million ha of barley versus 1.9 million ha a year ago. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.26 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.58 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.81, up 7 cents. For the week, nearby CBOT wheat was still down 9 3/4 cents, with KCBT down 24 cents and MGEX losing 14 1/2 cents.
