Chicago Soybeans And Corn Little Changed, Wheat Ends Higher For Once!
16/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended with small gains. Weekly soybean export sales of 312,600 MT for 2014/15 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The market was expecting old crop sales of somewhere between net cancellations of 50 TMT to positive 150 TMT. New crop sales came in at 226,200 MT, which was a bit below expectations of 250-450 TMT. MDA CropCast raised their view on Argentine soybean production this year by 500 TMT from last week to 56.62 MMT on better than expected yields. Brazil was unchanged at 94.34 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated this year's Argentine soybean harvest to be 32.5% complete, up 18.7 percentage points in a week. They see final production this year at a record 58.5 MMT. The market is now starting to focus on US weather and planting progress. "The new 7-day forecast is wet, not only for the Midwest but also the Great Plains," said Martell Crop Projections. "Drought is a continuing worry in Nebraska, South Dakota and western Minnesota. Elsewhere in the Midwest soil moisture is adequate to begin planting corn," they add. That might take away some of the recent talk of intended corn acres getting switched into beans. However "the 6-10 day outlook calls for strong cooling in the Midwest that would slow corn planting and emergence," they note. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.66, up 1 cent; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.69, up 1 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $312.40, up $0.90; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.76, down 4 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with fractional gains. Weekly export sales of 588,200 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. China popped up as a buyer of 65,200 MT. There were also small net sales of 28,500 MT for 2015/16. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the Argentine corn harvest at 24.1% complete, estimating production at 23 MMT, unchanged from a week ago. The USDA's FAS in Zambia said that the country's corn harvest could halve this year due to drought. They pegged output at just 1.7 MMT versus 3.4 MMT a year ago. ProZerno estimated the Russian corn crop at 10.9 MMT versus 11.3 MMT in 2014. MDA CropCast estimated the US 2015 corn crop at 13.816 billion bushels, down 6 million from a week ago due to acreage adjustments. They see the Brazilian crop at 76.91 MMT, unchanged from last week, but increased Argentina by 480 TMT to 24.03 MMT due to higher yield expectations. The EU corn crop was forecast 4.1 MMT lower than a week ago at 61.5 MMT, a near 10% decline on a year ago. China's CNGOIV forecast corn production there this year at a record near 220 MMT. Crude oil had a choppy day, but ultimately closed higher. It now stands at the best levels since before Christmas and is up around 30% from the March lows. Lower US production on the back of poor margins is being cited as the principal reason for the rally. The USDA reported 108 TMT of sorghum sold to China under the daily reporting system as their appetite for the grain continues unabashed. May 15 Corn closed at $3.76 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, higher in Chicago and lower in Kansas and Minneapolis. I guess that we can put the firmer Chicago market down to short-covering after the recent rout. Fund money is thought to possibly have established a record short position in Chicago wheat, tomorrow's commitment of traders report will therefore make interesting reading. Concerns still remain over the health of US winter wheat on the Plains. Moderate-to-extreme drought conditions in the six-state High Plains region rose to 41% on April 14 from 36% a week earlier, data from the US Drought Monitor report reveals. Weekly export sales were pathetic at just 47,900 MT on old crop. They were also a marketing-year low, being down 85 percent from the previous week and 80 percent below the prior 4-week average - and the previous 4-weeks have been nothing to write home about. Sales of 112,500 MT for 2015/16 were less than stellar as well. In contrast, the EU issued more than 740 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences, more than fifteen times those of the US, this past week. The EU export total to date is 26.42 MMT, which is now more than 2 MMT ahead of this time last year. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the world 2015/16 wheat crop by 3.4 MMT to 713.7 MMT, principally due to acreage reductions in the EU. ProZerno estimated the Russian wheat crop this year at 58.1 MMT, a relatively modest decline of 2.7% on a year ago. They see barley production falling 13.7% to 17.6 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentine wheat plantings for the 2015/16 crop year to fall to 4.1 million ha from 4.4 million a year ago. Low profitability in planting wheat and difficulties growers face in financing fieldwork were the main reasons given. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.94 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.08 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.35, down 8 1/4 cents.
