Chicago Soybeans Rise For Third Day On Argentine Strikes
29/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher for the third session in a row. Are they planning an assault on $10/bu? There's strong resistance at that level, and a push through it would likely trigger farmer selling in both the US and South America. Argentina's main grains hub of Rosario was hit by a strike by the captains of the boats used to ferry pilots to and from grain ships wanting to enter the port today. Talk of a separate Argentine crush union strike being imminent also lent support to the already tight old crop, and new crop went along for the ride. The new crop soybean:corn price ratio is now close to 2.5:1 based on tonight's closing levels, which should encourage increased soybean plantings in the US. Talk that weather conditions in the US are improving is giving rise to the notion that corn plantings will have accelerated this week, leaving less acres to potentially be switched into beans. A cut in the subsidies for local soybean growers in China could reduce their 2015 soybean plantings by 20%, said CNGOIC. Morocco, Vietnam and Malaysia are all reported to be in the market for soymeal. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 50,000 and 250,000 MT on the old crop, and between 200,000 and 400,000 MT on the new crop. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.88 1/2, up 11 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.88, up 10 3/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $324.20, up $5.50; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.47, up 24 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with net gains of around 3 cents. The USDA announced 130,000 MT of US corn sold to Taiwan for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report, in which the Taiwanese sale won't be included, are around 500,000 to 700,000 MT on old crop and from 50,000-200,000 MT on new crop. The trade is expecting huge strides to have been made with corn planting in the US this week, when the USDA report on that on Monday, with some suggesting 50% of the crop might be in the ground by Sunday night. That means that 31% of the crop needs to get sown this week to hit that target, a big number, although 25% in a week has been done before. "Strong warming is expected to dominate the US heartland in the 7 day forecast. Strong showers are also predicted, beginning later this week. A trough of low pressure would develop in the jet stream over the southwest United States, spreading showers northward into the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma and Kansas, then bending eastward across Missouri into Illinois," said Martell Crop Projections. South Africa's CEC raised their forecast for corn production there this year by 1% to 9.76 MMT. South Korea's NOFI bought 65,000 MT of optional origin corn for Dec shipment. South Korea's MFG bought 132,000 MT of optional origin corn for Nov shipment. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 921k barrels/day, down from 930k bpd the previous week. Stocks were 545,000 barrels lower at 20.797 million barrels. May 15 Corn closed at $3.63 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.67 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market nudged higher for a second day on what looks like light short-covering. Funds were estimated as net buyers of around 2,000 lots in Chicago on the day. A suddenly weaker US dollar was friendly for once. A Bloomberg survey estimated the US winter wheat crop at 1.484 billion bushels, up 7.7% on a year ago. The range of estimates was 1.385 to 1.553 billion bushels. Output in the top producing state of Kansas will jump to 298 million bushels, up 21% compared to last year's drought-ravaged crop, the survey found. Production in Oklahoma meanwhile will more than double to 109 million bushels, according to the average trade guess. The Russian Deputy PM indicated that the export duty on wheat would be reduced, but not done away with altogether, in the first half of next month. South Korea's NOFI are in the market for 69,000 MT of wheat. South Korea's KFMC are said to have passed on a tender to import 32,200 TMT of Australian wheat. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of what is believed to be Romanian wheat for Dec/Jan shipment. Weather conditions for winter wheat are seen improving in Europe, Russia and Ukraine. Spring plantings in Russia are being delayed by rain, with spring crop sowing more than 20% behind last year's pace. Barley sowings are down 26% and wheat planting is 11% behind the pace of a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are likely in the region of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.77 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.00 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.35 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents.
