Nogger's Blog

27/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed narrowly mixed. The USDA announcing 158,000 MT of old crop beans sold to unknown destinations was supportive to the nears. Weekly export inspections of 311,622 MT were also friendly on old crop, being more than double last week's total. "Strong local cash markets amid a dearth of farmer selling had the May/July spread trading into even money....selling of corn vs. buying of beans on the spread was also a key feature today as weather bodes well for additional corn acres to get planted this week to the possible loss of beans after a slowish start to the corn planting season," said Benson Quinn. After the close the USDA reported soybean planting at 2% complete versus the 5-year average of 4% done. The most advanced states are unsurprisingly in the south, with Mississippi 39% done, Louisiana 25% sown and Arkansas 16% complete. The soybean:corn price ratio finished the day at 2.48:1 versus less than 2.3:1 in late March. Allendale said that the spread of bird flu in the US won't, or at least shouldn't, have a significant impact on US crop prices, equating to a drop in soymeal demand of less than one percentage point, according to a report on Bloomberg. The EU's MARS unit raised their forecast for EU rapeseed yields from the 3.24 MT/ha predicted a month ago to 3.35 MT/ha. That's 6.4% below last year but 6.3% above the prior 5-year average. Ukraine said that they'd sown around 32% of this year's sunflower crop and some 10% of the area predicted to go into soybeans. Ukraine’s soybean exports in March were a record for the month at 216,800 MT, and almost three times higher than those of a year ago, said Bloomberg. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.73, up 3 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.73, up 2 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $315.10, up $0.50; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.66, down one point.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3-5 cents lower, with the May 15 future ending at the lowest level on a front month in 6 months. An improved US weather forecast was seen as bearish. Wheat slumping to the lowest since June 2010 was also negative. "Midwest corn planting is expected to pick up momentum this week with a warmer and drier forecast west of the Mississippi Valley. Night freezes were common in the Upper Midwest this past week, soil temperatures chilling below 50 F, the threshold temperature for corn germination. The forecast this week calls for strong warming west of the Mississippi River encouraging corn planting. The 6-10 forecast is warm in the Midwest at large that would also accelerate corn planting," said Martell Crop Projections. Weekly export inspections of almost 1.3 MMT were friendly. After the close the USDa reported corn planting at 19% complete, up from 9% done a week ago, but behind the 5-year average pace of 25% done. That was kind of in line with where many in the trade expected it to be, and it's also 2 points ahead of this time last year when yields went on to set new records. Notable laggards are Indiana at only 3% done versus 26% normally, Kentucky at 7% versus 45%, Ohio at 2% versus 20% and Tenessee at 17% versus 60% on average. Corn emergence was placed at 2% versus 3% a year ago and 6% for the 5-year average. In other news, the EU's MARS increased their forecast for EU-28 corn yields from 7.19 MT/ha to 7.22 MT/ha, a 9% decline on last year but 3% above the 5-year average. They cut their outlook on Ukraine though from the 6.22 MT/ha forecast a month ago to 5.6 MT/ha, down 7% on 6.02 MT/ha a year ago but in line with the 5-year average. French corn yields are forecast at 9.33 MT/ha versus 9.12 MT/ha a month ago, down from 10.38 MT/ha a year ago but still slightly above the recent average. Ukraine seaports exported 358.5 TMT of corn last week, up from 221.7 TMT the previous week, according to APK Inform. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that corn planting there was now 24% complete. They have plantings estimated at 4 million ha, which suggests a crop of 22.4 MMT using the MARS yield forecast. Production in Ukraine was 28.45 MMT last year, according to the USDA. May 15 Corn closed at $3.60 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.64 3/4, down 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market ended with double digit losses, and Chicago wheat now sits at the lowest levels seen on a front month in almost 5 years. "Technicals remain weak, but oversold. In addition to limited demand for US supplies, resistance is also stemming from the prospects of winter wheat crop showing improvement due to recent rains and favourable temps on this afternoon’s crop progress report," said Benson Quinn. After the close the USDA actually reported winter wheat rated good to excellent at 42%, unchanged for the second week in a row when a 2 point rise is what many in the market were forecasting. Winter wheat at the headed stage was placed at 28%, up from 16% a week ago and 17% a year ago and 24% for the preceding 5-year average. Spring wheat plantings continue to be brisk at 55% done versus 36% a week ago, only 17% a year ago and versus 29% for the 5-year average. Spring wheat emergence is in line with average at 9%. Spring barley is 56% planted versus 35% on average. "Rainfall has increased sharply in the Midwest and Great Plains over the past 2 weeks, though rain may be too late to bolster the yield (of winter wheat)," said Martell Crop Projections. Russia said that it's wheat shipments had slowed to 1.37 MMT since the new export duty came into force (Feb 1 to Apr 22). That compares to 3.32 MMT in the same period a year previously. Barley exports are up significantly though, from 258 TMT in 2014 to 1.55 MMT this year. Russia's season to date wheat exports are still higher than they were in 2013/14 though, at 19.84 MMT versus 16.56 MMT a year previously. The EU's MARS unit raised their forecast for EU-28 soft wheat yields from 5.79 MT/ha to 5.89 MT/ha, down 3% on a year ago but 3.7% above the 5-year average. Barley and corn yields in Europe were also increased. Reuters reported that Morocco would harvest a record 11 MMT grain crop this year following good winter and spring rains. That will have a negative impact on their import requirements. They begin harvesting wheat and barley next month. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.70 1/4, down 15 3/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.90 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.24 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents.