Nogger's Blog

05/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains, with the front end again leading the way higher. The move came despite reports that at least some the various Argentine labour disputes had been resolved (for now) and last night's news that US plantings had made good progress in the past week. Oil World estimated the global 2014/15 soybean crop at 315.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 312.75 MMT and up 12% compared to 281.65 MMT a year previously. They see Argentina at 57.5 MMT (although other estimates are now as high as 60 MMT), with Brazil at 94.3 MMT and Paraguay at 8.6 MMT. Informa estimated the Argentine crop at 59 MMT, with Brazil at 94.5 MMT. The new crop soybean:corn price ratio ended at 2.52:1 tonight, another fresh 7-month high, which in theory should encourage more soybean plantings. However with 55% of the US corn crop already in the ground, maybe this won't be the case. That at least appears to be the way the market is seeing it. UkrAgroConsult estimated the Ukraine rapeseed crop to fall 12% this year, with exports in 2015/16 declining by 15%. Maybe Europe will therefore need a few more soybeans to compensate for that shortfall, with their own 2015 rapeseed crop seen down 11% by Oil World. China's April soybean crush was estimated at 5.6 MMT, down from 6.0 MMT in March and versus 6.05 MMT a year previously. The crush is expected to pick up in May, June and July though as it usually does. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.93 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.84 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $318.10, up $2.30; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.88, up 41 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with small gains, despite last night's confirmation from the USDA that great strides had indeed been made by US growers in seeding the US 2015 corn crop. Maybe we can just call this light consolidation? "There doesn’t appear to be anything significant to induce a late session rally, but oversold conditions and a firmer soy complex were supportive," said Benson Quinn. Informa didn't bring anything bullish to the party, hiking their estimate for the 2014/15 Brazilian corn crop by 5.6 MMT to 80.3 MMT. They also increased the size of the global crop in 2015/16 by 4 MMT. One private analyst forecast US corn yields at 166 bu/acre this year. That's not far away from the USDA's Feb Outlook Forum prediction of a second highest ever 166.8 bu/acre, beaten only by last season's record 171.0 bu/acre. Taiwan tendered for 50-65,000 MT of US, Brazilian or Argentine corn for Jun/Jul shipment. France said that they'd exported 35% more corn in the first 8 months of this season than they did in the last. Jul 14 - Feb 15 exports were 4.7 MMT. FranceAgriMer predict full season exports at 7.1 MMT, also 35% up on a year previously. Russian seaports were said to have shipped out 155 TMT of corn last week, up from 101.6 TMT the previous week. Russia's Feb 1 - Apr 29 corn exports were 1.37 MMT versus 1.17 MMT a year ago. Their season to date exports are 2.39 MMT, down 30.9% on a year ago. Ukraine seaports shipped out 421.1 TMT of grains last week, of which 301.3 TMT, or 71.6%, was corn. The USDA's FAS in Romania said that heavy and prolonged rains there were holding back winter grain development and delaying spring corn planting. They see corn production there down 4% this year. May 15 Corn closed at $3.61 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.62 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market ended lower across the three exchanges. News that Egypt's GASC had picked up 2 cargoes of Russian/Romanian wheat at the lowest prices paid in at least 2 years was bearish. So too was the number of cargoes on offer. The prices paid were said to be around USD20/tonne under the best US offer. Informa estimated the US winter wheat crop at 1.486 billion bushels, up from a previous forecast of 1.378 billion and 8% higher than the 1.377 billion produced last year. HRW wheat production was seen at 871 million bushels, up 18% compared with 738 million in 2014. SRW wheat production was forecast at 410 million bushels, down 10% compared with 455.3 million in 2014. Russia appear to be lining up to remove their export duty on wheat from 15 May, although it may be replaced by another smaller tax, there's talk of the new on being as low as one euro/tonne. Russia's wheat exports since the duty came into force on Feb 1 (to Apr 29) were only 1.48 MMT compared with 3.57 MMT in the same period in 2014. Season to date wheat exports are however still 18.6% higher at 19.95 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Romania forecast the 2015 wheat crop there to decline 12%, with barley output falling 10%. Iran bought 25,000 MT of Ukraine milling wheat in a tender. The UK are currently said to be loading 66,000 MT of feed wheat destined for Thailand. Iraq were said to have bought 50,000 MT of US hard wheat. Egypt said that it had bought 1.6 MMT of wheat on the domestic market in the past 3 weeks. They aim to buy a total of 3.7 MMT this year. The Kazakh Ag Ministry trimmed back its forecast for the country's 2014/15 grain exports from 7.0 MMT to 6.5-6.6 MMT, due to the lower quality of last year's crop. Exports in 2013/14 were 8.7 MMT. Stats Canada are due out tomorrow with their latest Canadian stocks estimates. For wheat it's expected to be around 17.7 MMT as of 31 Mar, versus 21.9 MMT the previous year. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.64, down 5 1/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.86 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.13 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents.