Nogger's Blog

21/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans continue to grind a little lower on good planting progress and a non-threatening Midwest weather forecast. Weekly export sales were OK on old crop at 165,500 MT but a disappointment on new crop (again) at only 77,500 MT. Expectations had been for sales of 150,000–350,000 MT on new crop beans, according to Benson Quinn yesterday. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine soybean harvest had now reached 87.5% complete, up 8 points on the week and 17.6 points ahead of this time last year. They left their production estimate unchanged at a record 60 MMT. Brazil's Agroconsult raised their forecast for this year's Brazilian crop from 95.8 MMT to a new record 96.1 MMT. The USDA are currently only at 94.5 MMT. Celeres estimate the Brazilian crop at 94.7 MMT. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecast for the world soybean crop in 2015/16 at 302.7 MMT, and also held steady on US production prospects at 3.823 billion bushels versus the USDA's 3.85 billion estimate. Lanworth estimated the 2015 US soybean area at 85.6 million acres, which is 1 million above the USDA. Brazil, China and Peru are said to have agreed to a feasibility study to construct a "mega railroad" from Porto do Açu, a Brazilian Atlantic port near Santos, to Peru’s Puerto Ilo on the Pacific Ocean - a distance of around 3,300 miles. The aim is to reduce shipping costs of soybeans and other goods to China. It will doubtless meet with conservation and other issues/objections. The project is estimated to cost $10 billion, and would take 6 years to construct, officials say. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts across the globe found only two that were bullish on soybean price prospects, 21 were bearish and 11 neutral. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.38 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.10, down $0.40; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.25, up 5 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents higher. Weekly export sales of 812,600 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were up noticeably from the previous week and 12 percent above the prior 4-week average, said the USDA. They also reported new crop sales of 80,700 MT, including one cargo for China. Expectations had been 400,000–600,000 MT on old crop, and 50,000–200,000 MT new crop, so these numbers were supportive. Private exporters also reported a sale to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system of 152,400 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 crop year, and a further 50,800 MT for 2015/16 delivery, adding further help today. A firmer once more wheat market probably also helped today. Short covering and profit taking was noticeable on the day, said Benson Quinn. However "near perfect forecasts and a crop planting close to completion will continue to weight on this market moving forward. Expectations are for a record high crop condition rating next week," they added. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine corn harvest was now 35.5% done, and held steady with their estimate for a crop of 25 MMT. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their world corn production forecast in 2015/16 at 959.9 MMT, and pegged the US crop also unchanged from a week ago at 13.8 billion bushels. The USDA are currently at 13.63 billion. Lanworth estimated US corn plantings at 89.5 million acres, which is 300,000 more than the USDA. They said that China's 2015 corn crop "would not exceed 230 MMT" - which would be a record. The USDA are currently at 228 MMT (also a record). MDA CropCast are at 224.1 MMT. Ukraine said that it had planted 4.1 million hectares of corn so far, which is above some analysts estimates for the full planted area this year. CBGOIC said that China would import a record 9 MMT of sorghum this year, of which 7.4 MMT would come from the US. Sorghum imports last year were only 4.16 MMT, so that volume will more than double, they predict. Celeres estimated the Brazilian corn crop at just over 81 MMT versus the USDA's 78 MMT. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts found 9 that were bullish on corn's price prospects, 14 were bearish and 11 neutral. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.65, up 5 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.82 1/4, up 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains. Extreme wetness on the Plains, with the prospect of plenty more to come, has nervous shorts scurrying for the exits. We will find out just how short they still are, or at least were as of Tuesday night, with tomorrow's commitment of traders report. Dryness in western Canada and southern Russia is also starting to grab a few headlines. India is said to be buying Australian wheat to bring up the quality of their own rain/hail damaged crop. They could import the more wheat this year than they have since 2010, it is said. MDA CropCast lowered their forecast for the world wheat crop by 1.37 MMT to 712.3 MMT, which is 6.6 MMT below the USDA. The reason for the cut was China, who's crop was pared back to 127.5 MMT, some 2.5 MMT below the USDA. China can suffer some crop losses in an El Nino year. MDA CropCast estimated the US winter wheat crop at 1.567 billion bushels, with all wheat production at 2.216 billion. The USDA are only at 2.087 billion at the moment. Lanworth threw in a curveball with an estimate of 60.7 MMT for Russian wheat production this year, which is much higher than other trade estimates. The USDA are only at 53.5 MMT presently. Lanworth were also well above the USDA on Canada at 31.2 MMT and Ukraine at 23.2 MMT, although they were a bit lower on Europe at 150 MMT. Weekly US export sales came in at 74,400 MT on old crop, with just two weeks of the marketing year remaining. New crop sales were however pretty modest at only 128,200 MT. Actual shipments were 370,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cumulative season exports now stand at 21.44 MMT versus a USDA forecast of 23.2 MMT. The strong US dollar, and the outlook for that to continue in 2015/16 will make finding foreign sales a challenge for the US. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts found 17 that were bullish on wheat's price prospects, 11 were bearish and 6 were neutral. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.22, up 9 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.57 3/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.78 1/4, up 10 cents.