Chicago Grains Rise - Led By Wheat
18/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. Oil World estimated global 2014/15 soybean ending stocks at an ample 87.7 MMT, which would take total soybean availability in 2015/16 to a plentiful 399 MMT, they said. The USDA estimated that 45% of the US 2015 soybean crop was now in the ground, in line with trade forecasts. That was up 14 points on a week ago and this time last year, and also 9 points ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was placed at 13% versus 8% a year ago and 12% for the 5-year average. Argentine labour disputes remain a positive, although it's unclear how much, if any, business is being redirected to the US. The expanding bird flu epidemic in the US is a negative. So too is a firmer US dollar. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.54 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.35, up 1/2 cent; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $308.00, up $4.70; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.78, down 29 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents firmer. The USDA pegged corn plantings at 85% complete, up 10 points on a week ago and the 5-year average. Emergence is at 56% versus 29% a week ago, 32% a year ago and 40% for the 5-year average. All that was pretty much in line with expectations. US weather remains generally non threatening, although there's some talk of frost for one or two areas damage is likely to be very limited. Wheat was supportive for corn today too. South Korea bought 63 TMT of optional origin corn for Oct/Dec shipment over the weekend. The Ukraine Stat Stats Service estimate May 1 corn stocks there at 6.8 MMT. APK Inform said that Ukraine's corn exports via seaports fell to only 85.9 TMT last week. Russia said that it's season to date corn exports were down from 3.72 MMT a year ago to 2.54 MMT. AgroInfoMarket cut their forecast for Spanish corn production this year to 10.81 MMT and raised their estimate for corn imports by 200 TMT to 5.95 MMT, of which 2.1 MMT will come from Ukraine and 1.4 MMT from France, they predict. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.68, up 2 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.85 3/4, up 3 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with double digit gains as heavy rains pounding the Southern Plains sparked some short-covering. Fund money was still short over 100k lots in Chicago wheat as of Tuesday night, Friday's Commitment of Traders report revealed. India's wheat imports may jump to as much as 2 MT in 2015/16 from only 45,000 MT a year previously as millers there seek better quality material to blend in with their own rain damaged crop, according to a report on Bloomberg. There's talk of a hot and dry pattern developing for Russian wheat, which is adding to market jitters, although it's not really here yet. The USDA raised US winter wheat crop conditions by 1% in the good to excellent category to 45%, much better than only 29% a year ago. They said that 68% of the crop is headed versus 55% a year ago and 56% for the 5-year average. Spring wheat planting has now advanced to 94% done versus only 65% on average. Spring wheat emergence is at 67% versus only 38% on average. South Korea bought 90 TMT of Australian hard wheat for October shipment over the weekend. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.29 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.86, up 13 1/4 cents.
