Chicago Wheat Posts Largest Daily Gains In 3 Years
14/05/15 -- Soycomplex: May beans went off the board 12 cents lower, other months though were little changed. A Bloomberg survey of 32 traders and analysts found only two that were bullish on soybean price prospects. Eight were neutral and the remaining 22 were bearish - including me! Informa estimated 2015 US soybean plantings at 87.2 million acres, which is a figure 2.6 million higher than one that the USDA are currently using. It is also up 1.9 million from their April estimate. The US weather outlook remains non-threatening. The average trade guess for tomorrow's NOPA crush for April is 148.2 million bushels according to a Bloomberg survey. That's down sharply from 162.8 million in March, but well above 132.7 million crushed in April 2014. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for the world soybean crop in 2015/16 by 4.8 MMT to 302.7 MMT. That included increases of 4.5 MMT for Brazil to 98.3 MMT and an extra 1.5 MMT for Argentina to 57.0 MMT. They were unchanged on their ideas for this year's US crop, pegging that at 3.823 billion bushels, a 3.6% decline on last year's record. The soybean:corn price ratio on new crop ended the day at 2.44:1 versus the 7-month high of 2.53:1 set earlier in the week. Weekly export sales on beans came in at 136,600 MT on old crop and a modest 88,000 MT on the new crop. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.63, down 12 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.57, down 1/4 cent; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $310.60, up $8.90; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.00, down 11 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents higher, helped by wheat which posted its best daily gains in 3 years, according to Benson Quinn. Informa estimated US corn plantings this year at 88.7 million acres, which is the same as the USDA's March planting intentions forecast. The Bloomberg survey into traders/analysts views on the outlook for corn prices was more evenly spread than it was for beans. The survey found 9 people bullish, 11 bearish and 12 that were neutral. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for the world corn crop by 8.3 MMT from last week to 959.9 MMT, a drop of 1.7% on last year. They were unchanged on their forecast for this year's US crop at 13.802 billion bushels, a fall of 3.9% compared to last year's record. They raised their view on Ukraine surprisingly, up 1.9 MMT to 26.2 MMT, and also Russia, up by 0.7 MMT to 11.5 MMT. Argentina was increased by 1 MMT to 25.1 MMT, but Brazil was cut by 2.6 MMT to 72.7 MMT. They forecast EU corn yields this year at an average 6.8 MT/ha, which is considerably lower than MARS (7.22 MT/ha) and the USDA (7.18 MT/ha). Russia said that its 2015 corn crop was 65.5% planted on 1.8 million ha, the same area as this time a year ago. The USDA reported weekly export sales of 370,000 MT for delivery in 2014/15 - a marketing year low. Sales of 2,600 MT for 2015/16 were less than impressive as well. Shipments were good however at 1.1 MMT, including Japan (358,400 MT), Mexico (217,100 MT), South Korea (114,200 MT), Colombia (110,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (75,700 MT) and Peru (43,700 MT). China sold 31% of the US corn stocks offered up for auction today, but only 16.5% of the 1.72 MMT of the domestic corn on offer. May 15 Corn closed at $3.61, up 5 cents; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.68, up 5 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply higher. "The long predicted day of reckoning for the wheat short finally took place, with prices ripping through resistance levels with little trouble and settling within a penny of daily highs. Less encouraging long range forecasts and talk of strengthening El Nino led to buy stops/large scale short covering," said Benson Quinn. "The National Weather Service’s CPC outlook released this morning estimated the odds of El Nino continuing through the summer at 90%, and through the rest of 2015 at 80%," they added. "It has been raining cats and dogs in the Great Plains. Two to 3 times the average rainfall has developed in Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas in the recent 30 days. This has led to flash flooding in portions of the southern Great Plains. The warm, humid environment also promotes the spread of rust and other wheat disease. The forecast continues very wet. A trough of low pressure has become entrenched in the Southwest United States, spinning out waves of showers into the Southern Great Plains. The unusually wet weather in the US heartland is linked to El Nino," said Martell Crop Projections. Much of this rain will be too late to do anything but cause problems for US winter wheat. El Nino also typically would reduce wheat production in Australia's eastern states. In other news, MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the world wheat crop this year by 4.1 MMT to 713.7 MMT. US all wheat was pegged 2.1 MMT higher at 60.3 MMT. There were decreases though for Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and Australia. Tunisia bought 142 TMT of durum and 100 TMT of milling wheat in a tender, thought most likely to be of Black Sea origin. Weekly export sales came in at 115,400 MT on old crop and 142,000 MT on new crop. The Bloomberg survey found 13 traders who were bullish on wheat, 10 bearish and 9 neutral. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.01 3/4, up 20 3/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.35, up 25 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.57, up 25 3/4 cents.
