US Grains Fall, With New Crop Soybeans Setting Contract Lows
19/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with new crop Nov 15 posting a lifetime contract low. US plantings are going well, the Midwest has had plenty of moisture, and a warmer forecast for next week should be just what newly planted beans need. With corn planting already winding sown, bean sowings might also move it up a notch this week, it is thought. The usual Monday weekly export inspections numbers were delayed due to "technical difficulties" yesterday. The USDA released them today instead, and for beans they came in at 341,097 MT - a respectable total given the time of year and the large volume of old crop already exported. To add a bit more support to the old crop picture the USDA also today reported 132,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 delivery. China's CNGOIC said that soybean production there will fall for the fifth season in a row this year, down 7% to 11.2 MMT. Ongoing strikes in Argentina should be a little supportive, but the sharply firmer US dollar isn't. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.46 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.23 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $307.10, down $0.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.18, down 60 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents easier. Lower wheat prices didn't offer any support, and neither did the higher US dollar. Weekly export inspections of 1.1 MMT were pretty decent though. Fund money was given credit for being a net seller of around 6-7,000 lots on the day. "They are plenty short the market, but I don’t see a catalyst to move them off their short position at this point. It would take a weather scare, which certainly isn’t imminent right now," said Benson Quinn. Lower crude oil prices were another negative today, so too is the US bird flu epidemic. Low US DDGs prices could also be impacting on feed demand for US corn, it is said. Russia said that it's 2015 corn crop was 82% planted on 2.3 million ha, which is 0.1 million higher than this time last year. Germany's 2015 corn area was estimated marginally higher than a year ago at 482k ha, according to their Stats Office. DRV estimated Germany's corn crop at 4,83 MMT, a 6.1% decline on a year ago however. FranceAgriMer pegged French corn plantings at 1.64 million ha, a 6.4% fall versus last year. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.62, down 6 cents; Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.69 1/4, down 6 cents. The new crop soybean:corn price ratio closed at 2.43:1 tonight, which is around the middle of the recent range.
Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. A sharply higher US dollar was probably the catalyst, as heavy rains continue to be in the forecast for the US Plains. Maybe the fact that the USDA raised good to excellent wheat crop ratings last night was also another bearish influence today. Weekly export inspections of 309,562 MT were in line with what we've been used to recently, if not very inspiring. The marketing year is almost over for US wheat, and a couple of strong weeks are needed to stand a chance of hitting USDA targets for the season. Russian spring wheat is 42% planted on 5.6 million ha, which is 1.1 million less than this time last year. Kazakhstan's spring grains are 8.8% planted on 1.28 million ha. The German Stats Office estimated the winter wheat area there up 3% at 3.25 million ha. Germany's DRV increased their forecast for the 2015 German soft wheat crop by more than 1 MMT to nearly 27.8 MMT, although that's still 3% down on a year ago. FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French winter wheat plantings to 5.16 million ha, up 3.3% on last year. Oman bought 60,000 MT of Russian 12.5% milling wheat in a tender at levels said to be at least $30/tonne below US offered levels. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.10 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.40, down 15 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.64 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents.
