Chicago Beans Rally As Bill Moves Into Town
16/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans posted strong gains. "What had started as 'turn-around Tuesday' firmer trade in the overnight session turned into a full blown rally by the end of the day," said Benson Quinn. There's a bit of a felling that the current unusually wet weather in the US might be a case of "too much of a good thing" for beans more than corn. Last night's USDA crop progress report said that 13% of this year's crop has still to be planted in the US. That's 11 million acres using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate of 84.635 million acres. It's even higher based on Informa's 87.2 million forecast. Kansas and Missouri are the furthest behind and the forecast there is very wet for the next 5 days as Tropical Storm Bill hits the region. A significant proportion of the unplanted area in these two states will be second crop beans following on from winter wheat. The Kansas winter wheat harvest is only 2% harvested versus 18% on average and Missouri is 4% harvested versus 22% on average as rain lashes the region. In other news, the Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 45% of their 2014/15 soybean crop sold versus 38.5% a year ago. Oil World forecast a 2015/16 world soybean crop of 315.8 MMT versus this season's record 320.6 MMT crop. Brazil's output was seen at a new record 95.3 MMT. They cut their outlook on the world rapeseed crop this year to 66 MMT, down 1.2 MMT from previously, 3.2 MMT below last year and 2.5 MMT less than the current USDA forecast. Egypt said that it had bought 45,000 MT of soybean oil and 25,000T of sunflower oil in a tender. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.57 1/2, up 19 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.27 1/2, up 23 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $320.80, up $7.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.90, up 21 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 6-7 cents higher, reversing yesterday's losses in "turnaround Tuesday" style. " Continued moisture is starting to be destructive as reports out the central plains and Corn Belt indicate yellow corn due to heavy moisture and lack of nitrogen," said Benson Quinn. Tropical Storm Bill is just off the cost of Texas, and is forecast reaching into Missouri, Illinois and parts of Indiana by the end of the week, bringing more heavy rains to the region. Crop ratings are holding up, for now. Next week's crop ratings will make interesting reading though. As mentioned above, the current feeling is that these rains are more of an issue for soybeans than they are a "deal breaker" for corn at the moment, although that sentiment could change. Fund money is short corn, but nowhere near as much as it was, so they appear reasonably comfortable with that position at the moment. They were estimated as being net buyers of around 7,000 contracts on the day today. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 52% of their 2014/15 corn crop sold versus 42% a year ago. FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French corn exports this season from 7.09 MMT to 7.54 MMT. Rusagrotrans forecast a Russian corn crop of 11.8 MMT this year, up 4.4% from a year ago and a record level. Other estimates are even higher in the 12.0-12.5 MMT region. The crop is 97% sown on 2.7 million hectares, said the Russian Ag Ministry. China's CNGOIC said that the country will import more than 9 MMT of sorghum this season, of which 7.8 MMT is already on contract with the US, they say. Their foreign corn purchases are running at low levels, and very little of what they are buying is coming from the US. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.54, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.70, up 6 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with little change. Tropical Storm Bill is seen bringing more unwanted heavy rains to US winter wheat areas on the Plains this week. Harvesting in Texas is in line with normal, but just about everywhere else is well behind. The top producing state of Kansas being only 2% done versus 18% for the 5-year average, Oklahoma is 38% complete versus 57% normally and Illinois is 1% harvested compared to 15% on average. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 80% of their 2014/15 wheat crop sold versus 57% a year ago. The ever optimistic Ministry also said that winter wheat planting, which is now underway in Argentina, will get sown on an area similar to last year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and their fellows at the Rosario Exchange see things quite differently, and are forecasting a significant drop in area this year, with the latter particularly bearish - seeing plantings down 20%. FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French soft wheat and barley exports this season, consequently lowering their estimates for ending stocks of both. Very strong barley sales to China should continue into at least the first part of 2015/16, they told Bloomberg. Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of feed barley, which will probably end up coming from France. Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's wheat exports at 22.3 MMT this season. The figure includes sales to Kazakhstan which aren't included in official government numbers due to the existence of a preferential trade agreement between the two countries. Russian grain production in 2015 was increased to 99-100 MMT, That includes a wheat crop estimated at 57.3 MMT. IKAR fine-tuned their forecast in Russian wheat this year to 55-59 MMT. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.06 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.47 1/2, up 2 cents.
