Chicago Ends Lower, Positioning Ahead Of Tuesday's USDA Report Seen Largely Done
24/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4-5 cents easier. It seems that the trade has positioned itself where it wants to be heading into next week's USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report due on Tuesday. "Regardless of concerns about pending production, it appears the funds have pared their positions to manageable levels and the trade may need a new supportive story to sustain this move into the report," said Benson Quinn. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. Allendale said 85.105 million yesterday and Informa were at 86.76 million last week. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. Oil World cut their forecast for the EU rapeseed crop by 200 TMT to 21.8 MMT, a 10.5% decline on a year ago, saying that rapeseed prices would command a "sizeable" premium to soybeans throughout the 2015/16 season. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the range of 350,000-800,000 MT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.81 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.56, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $328.00, down $3.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.27, up 45 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 994,000 barrels/day versus 980,000 bpd the previous week. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. Informa were out last week with an estimate of 89.199 million acres and Allendale gave us the highest trade guess of 91.742 million yesterday. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Dr Cordonnier said that the Brazilian safrinha corn crop is expected to produce record yields due to "excellent" weather conditions. Brazilian analyst Agroconsult estimate second crop corn production at 52.5 MMT, and maybe more, he said. That takes the total crop up to at least 83 MMT versus a USDA estimate of only 75 MMT. Agroconsult see Brazilian corn exports at a record 27.1 MMT, up by almost a third on 20.6 MMT a year previously and well above the USDA's forecast of 24 MMT. Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's 2015/16 corn exports at 3 MMT. CNGOIC said that China's 2014/15 corn imports may total 4 MMT, despite government attempts to discourage foreign buying and persuade local traders to buy some of their own huge state-owned stockpiles. Ukraine could supply up to half of that volume it is thought. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the range of 650,000 MT to 800,000 MT. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80 1/2, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market gave up some of the gains achieved over the past couple of sessions. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. Japan is in the market for 114,500 MT of wheat of mixed origin in it's usual weekly tender. South Korea are tendering for 50,000 MT of Australian wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Russia bought 29,295 MT of wheat at today's intervention purchase round, taking the total bought so far to 1.164 MMT. Dryness in parts of Europe and Canada remain a concern. In Canada, prairie spring wheat prospects have been dimmed by drought, probably because of a strong El Nino, said Martell Crop Projections. "Out of seven El Nino’s in the past, dating back to 1980, just one resulted in a favourable wheat yield – the 1982 spring wheat harvest. A second was mediocre, the 1991 wheat yield just slightly below trend. Very poor wheat yields occurred in 5 of the other 7 El Nino years," they noted. "Growing season rainfall has been deficient in Saskatchewan and Alberta, the leading 2 wheat provinces, where just 40-60% of normal rainfall has developed in the past 2 months. Manitoba wheat has fared better, the smallest of the 3 prairie provinces, with heavier rainfall in the past several weeks. Unfavorable dry conditions have developed in western Manitoba, bordering Saskatchewan however," they said. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are a modest 200-400,000 MT. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.24 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.63 3/4, down 6 cents.
