Nogger's Blog

22/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with strong gains on US planting concerns ahead of tonight's latest crop progress report from the USDA. That put US soybean plantings at only 90% complete, up just 3 points on the week and behind the 95% done 5-year average. That was also at the low end of expectations and means that as of Sunday night US farmers still had almost 8.5 million acres of soybeans left to sow using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate of 84.635 million acres. Kansas is only 73% done versus 91% normally at this time, and Missouri is barely past halfway through at 51% sown compared to the 5-year average of 88% complete. Emergence was placed at 84% versus 87% on average. Good to excellent ratings were cut 2 points to 65% versus 72% this time a year ago. Weekly export inspections came in at 178,094 MT and now need to average 155,876 MT to hit the USDA's target for the season. Cumulative season to date inspections are 47.6 MMT, around 112% of the total for the same week in 2013/14. Canadian canola futures hit a one year high, and prices in Europe are less than 2 euros away from being at a 14 month high. Canadian canola exports for the season to date are up 0.3% on a year ago at 7.6 MMT. Their soybean exports are up 5.9% at 2.4 MMT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.89 1/2, up 18 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.59 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $333.60, up $10.50; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.92, up 37 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 to 6 cents higher. Short-covering ahead of tonight's crop progress report may have been a feature today. After the close the USDA cut US corn crop ratings two points to 71% good to excellent compared to 74% this time last year. Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and North Carolina have the worst conditions. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa have the best. Weekly export inspections of over 1.1 MMT beat trade expectations and were a little above what's required to hit the USDA target for the season. China were said to have imported 400,000 MT of corn in May, but virtually none of it came from the US. Jan/May imports are now 1.78 MMT. Roach Ag Marketing estimated US 2015 corn plantings at 88.1 million acres compared with the USDA's March prediction of 89.199 million. The USDA are due to release their revised forecasts next Tuesday. Plantings in 2014 were 90.597 million acres. The EU Commission's MARS unit estimated corn yields in Europe this year at an average 7.22 MT/ha, unchanged on a month ago but 10.6% down versus 8.08 MT/ha in 2014. They raised their forecast for corn yields in Ukraine from 5.60 MT/ha a month ago to 6.13 MT/ha, where they said "all crops benefited from favourable thermal conditions while soil water contents are still high." APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 575.8 TMT of grains in the past week, of which 91.5% (527.1 TMT) was corn. Russia's seaports exported 336.6 TMT of grains last week, but less than 12% of that (39.2 TMT) was corn. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.60, up 6 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains on all three exchanges. The USDA reported the 2015 US winter wheat harvest had advanced 8 percentage points on the week to 19% complete, well below 31% done for the 5 year average. Missouri is only 12% done compared to 44% normally, Kansas is at 8% versus 33% on average, Indiana is at 5% done versus 20% normally and Illinois is just 3% complete against 29% typically at this time. Winter wheat crop ratings fell 2 points in the good to excellent category to 41%, although that's still better than only 30% a year ago. Spring wheat rated good to excellent was up one point on a week ago to 72%, the same as this time last year. Spring wheat at the headed stage was placed at 23% versus 15% on average at this time. Weekly export inspections of 290,300 MT were not a surprise, but not very impressive either. Canada said that it had exported 15.0 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) so far this season, a 3.3% increase on a year ago. Durum wheat exports are up 8% at 4.3 MMT and barley shipments are 5.5% higher at 1.3 MMT. APK Inform reported Russian seaports had shipped out 336.6 TMT of grains last week, up from 280.5 TMT the previous week, of which wheat accounted for 278.1 TMT of last week's total. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 29.63 MMT of grains so far this season, up 18% from a year ago. Wheat shipments are 15% higher at 21 MMT, barley exports are up more than 100% at 5.23 MMT. The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their estimate for EU soft wheat yields this year to 5.85 MT/ha from 5.93 MT/ha a month ago and down 4.7% on 6.14 MT/ha a year ago. German yields are seen almost 10% lower than a year ago at 7.77 MT/ha, but those in France are forecast slightly higher at 7.41 MT/ha. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.01 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12, up 8 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.53, up 10 cents.