Chicago Market Positions Itself Ahead Of USDA Report
09/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the November contract trading at its highest level since May 19. Meal posted strong gains too, with oil again the weakest leg of the complex, reversing the recent trend. Today was probably all about positioning and a bit of book-squaring/profit-taking prior to tomorrow's USDA WASDE report. That is expected to peg US 2014/15 soybean ending stocks at 339 million bushels, the range of estimates being 302-360 million and the USDA's May estimate was 350 million. The coming 2015/16 season ending stocks are estimated at 487 million bushels, the range of estimates is 433-569 million and the USDA's May estimate was 500 million. World 2014/15 ending stocks are forecast at 85.80 MMT, the range of estimates being 84.20–86.71 MMT and the USDA's May estimate was 85.54 MMT. World 2015/16 ending stocks are seen at 96.00 MMT, the range of estimates is 90.25-97.33 MMT and the USDA's May estimate was 96.22 MMT. For Argentina this year the average trade estimate is 59.18 MMT versus the USDA's May estimate of 58.50 MMT. Brazil is seen at an average of 94.76 MMT versus the USDA's May estimate of 94.5 MMT. CONAB come out on Thursday with their latest 2014/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. They had the Brazilian bean crop at 95.07 MMT in May. Informa are due out on Thursday or Friday with their 2015 US acreage estimate updates. They saw US soybean plantings this year at 87.185 million acres last tine. Last night's USDA crop progress report suggests that the best part of 18 million acres of soybeans are still unplanted in the US using their March 31 planting intentions estimate of 84.635 million acres. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.51 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.25, up 4 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $316.50, up $7.00; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.93, down 17 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a fraction lower. The trade must consider itself positioned where it wants to be heading into tomorrow's USDA report. That is expected to show 2014/15 US corn ending stocks at 1.859 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.775-1.964 billion and little changed from the USDA's May estimate of 1.851 billion. US ending stocks in 2015/16 are seen at an average of 1.779 billion bushels, the range of estimates is 1.662-2.053 billion and the USDA were at 1.746 billion last month. World 2014/15 ending stocks are forecast at an average of 192.52 MMT, the range of estimates is 188.00-194.00 MMT and the USDA's May estimate was 192.50 MMT. World 2015/16 corn ending stocks are seen at an average of 191.90 MMT, the range of estimates is 187.00-199.70 MMT, and the USDA's May estimate was 191.94 MMT. The Argentine corn crop is forecast at an average of 25.10 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 23.70-29.80 MMT and up from the USDA's May estimate of 24.50 MMT. The Brazilian corn crop is seen at 78.70 MMT, the range of estimates is 76.50-81.10 MMT and the USDA's May estimate was 78.00 MMT. For CONAB on Thursday the Brazilian corn crop was estimated by them at 78.59 MMT in May. The US corn area was estimated at 88.737 million acres by Informa in May versus a USDA March estimate of 89.1 million. That figure will be updated later in the week, and the USDA's number will be fine tuned at the end of the month. In other news, the French Ag Ministry forecast corn plantings there this year to fall 7.8% to 1.71 million ha. Russia said that it's corn crop is 95.6% planted on 2.7 million ha. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports shipped out 2.2 MMT of grains in May of which 1.8 MMT was corn. Mexico are said to be seeking US corn for Aug-Sept shipment. China said it’s corn stocks have reached a record high. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.65, down 1/4 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.83, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on all three exchanges. The trade remains concerned about damage to the US crop by unseasonably heavy rains just prior to harvesting. Trade estimates for the US all wheat crop tomorrow average 2.110 billion bushels, the range of estimates is 2.050-2.191 billion, the USDA's May estimate was 2.087 billion and US 2014/15 all wheat production was 2.026 billion. US 2014/15 wheat ending stocks are seen at an average of 712 million bushels, the range of estimates is 685-734 million and the USDA May estimate was 709 million. New crop US ending stocks are forecast at 798 million bushels, the range of estimates is 672-876 million and the USDA's May estimate was 793 million. Old crop world wheat ending stocks are seen at 200.29 MMT, the range of estimates being 196.90- 201.15 MMT and the USDA May estimate was 200.97 MMT. New crop carryout is forecast at 201.72 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 194.00-205.72 MMT and versus the USDA May estimate of 203.32 MMT. For CONAB on Thursday the Brazilian 2015 wheat crop was estimated at 7.05 MMT in May. Informa had the 2015 US all wheat area estimated at 55.947 million acres in May versus a USDA March estimate of 55.4 million. In other news the Philippines seek 59,550 MMT of feed wheat for Sep-Oct shipment. Japan is tendering for its regular weekly combo of US, Canadian and Australian wheat with the results due Thursday. China’s State Administration of Grain said that the country's 2015 wheat crop will be slightly above that of last year (as usual). The French Ag Ministry said winter wheat plantings there were up 3.2% at 5.17 million ha. Russia said that it's spring wheat crop was 99.4% planted on 13.1 million ha. The Russian Grain Union estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 95-96 MMT. IKAR are more optimistic at 98-105 MMT, up 1.0 MMT from their previous estimate. SovEcon raised their forecast by 5 MMT earlier in the week to 99 MMT. India are said to be continuing to buy Australian wheat to blend in with their own inferior quality new crop this year. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.48 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.82 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents.
