Nogger's Blog

04/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, helped by weekly export sales that came in at 130,300 MT of old crop and 347,000 MT of new crop. Actual shipments are slowing up though, at 224,800 MT these were down 36 percent from the previous week and 9 percent below the prior 4-week average. Even so, the US has already shipped out 46.6 MMT of soybeans this season, with a further 3.5 MMT of outstanding sales taking total commitments to over 50 MMT versus a USDA forecast for full season exports of just under 49 MMT. Meal sales this week were a disappointment however, at only 53,200 MT for 2014/15 these were down 57 percent from the previous week and 48 percent below the prior 4-week average. New crop was even worse at net sales reductions of 2,300 MT. Meal shipments of 262,000 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cumulative shipments are now at 8.4 MMT, with another 2.2 MMT of outstanding sales taking total commitments to 10.6 MMT versus a USDA forecast for the season of 11.6 MMT. In other news, ahead of next week's USDA June WASDE report a Bloomberg survey came up with an average trade guess for world 2015/16 soybean ending stocks of 96.21 MMT, almost exactly what the USDA themselves said a month ago, and up 12.5% from 85.54 MMT in the current season. US ending stocks were placed at 483 million bushels, down from the USDA's 500 million estimate last month. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 6 bullish, 11 bearish and 8 neutral on soybean prices. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecast for the US 2015 soybean crop at 3.823 billion bushels, a 3.6% decline on last year's record. Dr Cordonnier was unchanged on his estimate for the 2014/15 Brazilian soybean crop at 94.5 MMT and raised Argentina by 1 MMT to 60 MMT. Both numbers would be records. A report on Bloomberg quoting Canadian analysts ProMarket Wire said that farmers there would harvest only around 18 million acres of canola this year, down sharply from a government planting estimate of 19.4 million, after large areas were wiped out by last weekend's hard frost. Farmers have been struggling to find enough seed to replant, by all accounts. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.46 1/2, up 11 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.24, up 9 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $305.70, up $3.00; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 34.53, down 20 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher despite disappointing weekly export sales. These came in at 464,900 MT for delivery in 2014/15, which was down 29 percent from the previous week and 31 percent below the prior 4-week average. To add insult to injury there were net sales reductions of 54,800 MT for 2015/16. Trade estimates had been around 550,000 MT to 1 MMT for both marketing years combined. Actual shipments were respectable though at 957,400 MT, even if they were down 11 percent from the previous week and 13 percent below the prior 4-week average. The US has now shipped out 32.2 MMT of corn this season, with a further near 11.3 MMT of outstanding sales taking total net commitments to 43.5 MMT versus a USDA forecast for full season exports of 46.0 MMT. A Bloomberg survey estimated world corn ending stocks in 2015/16 at 192.4 MMT, up a little on the USDA's 191.9 MMT a month ago and versus 192.5 MMT in the current season. US 2015/16 ending stocks were estimated at an average 1.772 billion bushels versus a USDA figure of 1.746 billion last month. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 12 bullish, 6 bearish and 8 neutral on corn prices. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their estimate for the 2015 US corn crop at 13.802 billion bushels, down 3.9% from last year's record. They lowered their outlook on the EU to 62 MMT versus 68 MMT a year ago. Dr Cordonnier was unchanged on his forecast for the 2014/15 Brazilian corn crop at 79 MMT, but raised Argentina 0.5 MMT to 24.5 MMT. The Russian Ag Ministry said that 2015 corn planting there was almost 95% complete on 2.7 million ha. Rusagrotrans estimated that Russia would export 250 TMT of corn in June. South Korea tendered for 138 TMT of optional origin corn fro Oct/Nov shipment. The FAO added 7 MMT to their estimate for the global corn crop this year, taking that up to over a billion tonnes. They see world carryout in 2015/16 at 219 MMT, up 2 MMT on a month ago and significantly higher than other estimates from the USDA and IGC. "In Brazil, conditions are favourable. Overall planted area is down relative to last year due to competition with soybeans, which are more profitable. Harvest is complete for the spring-planted crop (lesser producing season) and the summer-planted crop (higher producing season) is in reproductive stages, and conditions remain favourable. In Argentina, conditions are generally good. Harvest is progressing normally owing to good weather conditions," they said. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.63 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.81, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid double digit gains across the three exchanges. The USDA reported net sales reductions of 20,400 MT for delivery in now ended 2014/15 marketing year (for the period to May 28). There were net sales of 364,100 MT for 2015/16, which was in line with expectations. Shipments last week were respectable at 406,300 MT, taking the cumulative total for what is now just 3 days short of the entire 2014/15 marketing year to 22.3 MMT. There are outstanding unshipped sales of a further 954 TMT. The USDA forecast for 2014/15 exports is 23.2 MMT. Short-covering may have been a feature today, with some talk of the already sodden US Plains turning wetter again. Quality could certainly be an issue there once the combines finally do get into the fields. There's also scattered talk of heat and dryness being a possible yield loser in Russia and parts of Europe now too. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the global wheat crop by 1.1 MMT to 710.5 MMT. They lowered their yield estimates in the US and Canada, but nudged Russia and Europe a little higher. The FAO raised their global 2015/16 wheat production forecast by 4 MMT to 723 MMT, and added 2 MMT to global carryout to take that up to 219 MMT. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 10 bullish, 7 bearish and 9 neutral on wheat prices. The average trade guess in their survey into global ending stocks pegged those for wheat at an average 202.36 MMT versus the USDA's May estimate of 203.32 MMT. US carryout was forecast at an average 794 million bushels, almost identical to the USDA's 793 million a month ago. They also canvassed the market for guesses as to the size of the US wheat crop this year, finding an average trade estimate for winter wheat production at 1.466 billion bushels versus the USDA's 1.472 billion in May. The US all wheat crop was estimated at 2.095 billion bushels compared to 2.087 billion from the USDA a month ago. There's some talk of increased Canadian spring wheat plantings due to farmers' inability to source canola seed to replant crops damaged by the recent frosts. Russia said that their spring wheat planting was almost 93% done on 12.1 million ha versus 12.4 million a year ago. Spring barley is said to be 93% planted on 7.6 million ha (versus 8.3 million this time last year). Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's June grain exports at 1.4 MMT including 900 TMT of wheat and 200 TMT of barley. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.23 3/4, up 13 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.41 1/4, up 12 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.75 3/4, up 12 3/4 cents.