Nogger's Blog

15/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The move came despite the fact that the NOPA June crush came in at 142.473 million bushels, above the average trade estimate 141.478 million and the highest for the month of June on record. It was also far higher than the 118.7 million crushed the previous year. This was the seventh month this marketing year (Sept to Aug) in which the NOPA crush has set a new record, noted Benson Quinn. "The market did not even blink at today’s report large June crush stats and instead maintained lower trajectory on slack new crop demand and technically inspired profit taking," they said. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 200-400 TMT on new crop beans. For the coming days, above normal temperatures are forecast for most of the Midwest through until Sunday. The 8-15 day outlook is normal temperatures west of the Mississippi, and above normal east of that. Rainfall forecasts are above normal for northern/western states: the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Below normal rainfall is forecast elsewhere. Oil World said that considering global fundamentals, soybean prices in the US have the potential to fall back to the $9.50/bu level, or even lower, unless US crop conditions deteriorate further. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.25, down 8 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $10.16, down 9 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $362.20, up $5.00; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.65, down 75 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so higher. We remain stuck in a weather market it would seem. Excessive wetness in many parts of the US pushed spec money into covering their shorts, and indeed creating a new long position. Yet the USDA keeps reporting crop conditions in line with normal for the time of year. The weekly ethanol grind was down slightly from last week at 984,000 barrels/day, versus 987,000 bpd the previous week. Stocks were also down a touch at 19.7 million barrels. The CME group re-instated force majuere on a section of the Illinois River saying that "shipping stations are unable to load due to high-water levels". A similar force majuere clause was invoked last month and was only lifted on Jul 9. Trade forecasts for tomorrows weekly export sales report are around 500-750,000 MT. Ukraine is still busy shipping out old crop corn, of the 688 TMT of grains already exported in the first half of this month, more than half (390 TMT) was corn. ProZerno forecast that Russia would export 4.7 MMT of corn in 2015/16, a sharp increase of more than 50% on exports of around 3.0 MMT in 2014/15. One weather analyst said that heat and dryness is staring to stress corn in Hungary - Europe's third largest producing country. Agronomist Mike Lee, driving south from Budapest, said however that "all the corn I can see looks fine". Much of Europe is set to see above to much above normal temperatures for the next 7 days. The forecast beyond that sees cooler temperatures for the west and central areas, with the heat remaining in force in the south and east. Dryness looks set to remain in the east of Europe, the west could be wetter than normal according to the GFS model. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.29 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.40 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed a little lower. Reports suggest that the harvest in Russia and Ukraine is throwing up some better crops than were expected. Some analysts are now predicting Russia's 2015 grain output at close to last year's levels. Germany's DBV also said that the winter barley harvest there is turning out better than expected. The market is conscious that with the harvest in Europe and the Black Sea regions now starting to get going in earnest, the US needs to be competitive on the export front. Weakness in the euro, rouble and hryvnia compared to the US dollar makes that task all the more difficult. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales remain around where they have been for the last 4 weeks now, in the relatively modest 300-500 TMT region. This week's Egyptian tender highlighted once again that the US is struggling to make sales to all but traditional homes for US wheat. Japan are in the market in a routine tender for US, Canadian and Australian wheat, with the results expected tomorrow, but the US needs to be picking up better business than this if it is going to hit the USDA's target for a 15% increase in exports this season. Drought relief could be on the way for Canadian wheat. "The jet stream waves are re-adjusting. A trough of low pressure is forming offshore from British Columbia, while a warm stable ridge of high pressure builds up in the US Great Plains. Very heavy rainfall is predicted in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, spinning out of the trough, 150% - 250% of normal. Drenching rain would be highly beneficial easing drought, giving prairie wheat and canola a needed boost," said Martell Crop Projections. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.66 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.59, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.89 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents.