Chicago Grains Finish In Well Into The Red
24/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and for the week. An improved US weather outlook and stiff competition from South America weigh on the market, with beans now back below $10/bushel. ABOIVE estimated that Brazil will export 50.3 MMT of soybeans this season, well above the USDA's 46.8 MMT forecast. "Drier weather recently has been a welcome reprieve from flooding previously in Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio. Flooded crops are gradually recovering. Increased sunshine has also been beneficial for Midwest crop development. Midwest weather conditions are expected to trend warmer in the week ahead with near- to above average rainfall. The new forecast calls for temperatures 3-5 F above normal, the Upper Midwest even hotter in Minnesota and Wisconsin," said Martell Crop Projections. The trade is expecting the USDA to possibly raise good to excellent crop ratings for soybeans on Monday. The crop was rated 62% good to excellent last week, something like 63-64% could be on the cards on Monday. The USDA reported China bought 220,000 MT of new crop US soybeans today under the daily reporting system. They are said to have been active buyers of South American material these past few weeks. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.91 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.65, down 15 1/2 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $354.80, down $4.20; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.48, down 71 points. For the week Aug 15 beans were down 23 1/2 cents, meal was $1.20 lower and oil fell 130 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with double digit losses. As with beans an improved US weather outlook weighs on the market, driving prices back below the psychologically important $4/bushel level. The trade is expecting the USDA to report the US corn crop to maybe be in a bit better shape in Monday night's crop condition report. The crop was rated 69% good to excellent last week, with "silking" one point behind the 5-year average. "US corn pollination may have advanced to 70% complete, up from 55% a week ago. This is the most sensitive period for the corn yield. Generous rainfall promotes favourable yields. However, with severe drought, kernels are not successfully pollinated. This leads to blank spaces on the ear that would shrink the yield. Producers are not worried about drought this year. Midwest soil moisture runs from ample to surplus," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA reported that Mexico bought 231,000 MT of US corn overnight, 168,000 MT of which was new crop. They also reported export sales of 116,000 MT of sorghum for delivery to unknown destinations, almost certainly China. Of that total 58,000 MT is for delivery during the 2014/15 marketing year and 58,000 MT for delivery during the 2015/16 marketing year. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre upped their forecast for corn yields there this year from 6.0 MT/ha to 6.2 MT/ha, increasing production from a previous forecast of 25.3 MMT to 26.5 MMT. The crop there is in generally excellent condition, they said. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.92 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.02 3/4, down 11 cents. For the week Sep 15 corn was 12 1/2 cents lower, with Dec 15 down 13 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market was unable to buck the trend set by both beans and corn, closing lower on the day and for the week. The USDA announced export sales of 104,350 MT of US wheat for delivery to Taiwan during the 2015/016 marketing year. Of that total, 56,550 MT is hard red spring wheat, 36,550 MT is hard red winter wheat and 11,250 MT is white wheat. That isn't enough to set the market alight though. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that winter wheat planting in Argentina is 93.8% complete on 3.517 million ha. They left their final area estimate unchanged at 3.75 million ha, down sharply from 4.4 million ha a year ago. The CWB crop tour pegged Canadian spring wheat production at 18.1 MMT and the durum crop at 4.2 MMT, with an all wheat crop of around 25 MMT. The USDA had the crop at 27.5 MMT earlier this month. FranceAgriMer left French wheat crop conditions unchanged at 76% good to very good. They said that 60% of the crop had already been harvested as of Monday night, up from 38% a week ago and almost double the 33% done from this time last year as the warm and dry conditions allow the combines to make rapid progress. Russia said that it's 2015 wheat harvest was 21.9% complete on 5.8 million ha, producing a crop of 22.5 MMT to date. Yields so far are said to be averaging 3.86 MT/ha versus 3.60 MT/ha a year ago. That is expected to drop off however as the harvest advances into less productive and drier areas such as the Centre, Volga and Siberian regions. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.07 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.45, down 7 3/4 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 42 1/4 cents lower, with the Kansas market down 39 1/4 cents and Minneapolis 29 1/4 cents lower.
