EU Grains Decline, London Wheat Under Pressure As Pound Hits New Euro High
14/07/15 -- EU grains closed mostly lower, with Nov 15 London wheat down GBP1.75/tonne at GBP126.25/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne easier at EUR192.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was down EUR0.75/tonne to EUR182.75/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed slipped EUR0.25/tonne to EUR391.25/tonne.
The pound rose to a new highest level versus the euro since late 2007 as the IMF said Greece's public debt was now "highly unsustainable" and urged debt relief on a scale "well beyond what has been under consideration to date".
Once again, that saw London wheat come off the worst in comparison to the French markets.
News from the ONS that UK CPI inflation fell to 0% in June from the lofty heights of 0.1% in May also lent support to sterling.
Egypt's GASC were back in the market tendering for wheat for Aug 21-31 delivery. They finished up buying two cargoes each of Romanian and Russian wheat at levels around $200/tonne or just under on an FOB basis.
Algeria are also in the market, tendering for optional origin milling wheat for October delivery with the results expected tomorrow.
Germany's DRV cut their forecast for the country's 2015 grain crop to 47.2 MMT, down 0.5 MMT from their previous estimate and 9% down on 52 MMT a year ago.
That includes 25.4 MMT of wheat, down from 25.8 MMT previously and versus 27.8 MMT last year.
The 2015 German rapeseed harvest forecast was also revised down to 4.9 MMT, which is now 21% lower than the record 6.2 MMT produced in 2014.
The Czech Stats Office said that the country would harvest 4.6 MMT of wheat this year, almost 15% less than a year ago. Barley production is also seen down 15% at 1.7 MMT, whilst rapeseed output will decline 20% to 1.2 MMT, they said.
Oil World cut their 2015 EU-28 rapeseed production forecast by 0.4 MMT to 21.6 MMT, down 12% on a year ago. They have the German crop a little higher than DRV at 5.1 MMT, with France producing 5.07 MMT, Poland 2.85 MT and the UK 2.25 MMT, they predict.
They also estimate the Ukraine rapeseed crop at 1.9 MMT this year, some 18% below year ago levels.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country's early grain harvest was 22% complete on 2.25 million ha, producing a crop of 7 MMT to date. That includes 3.73 MMT of wheat with yields averaging 3.35 MT/ha.
Ukraine has harvested 37% of it's winter barley crop and 30% of it's winter rapeseed, they added.
The Russian harvest is now 7.9% complete, producing 13.8 MMT, with yields averaging 3.72 MT/ha versus 3.53 MT/ha a year ago.
That included 9.7% of the winter wheat area and 6.4% of the winter and spring barley area.
The Stavropol region in the south of the country is already past halfway done at 58% harvested.
Kazakhstan said that their Jul 1 grain stocks were 5.27 MMT, of which 4.68 MMT was wheat.
