Nogger's Blog

20/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in part of what looked like a general "risk off" move in commodities. That was despite weekly export inspections of 306,379 MT setting a 9-week high, and being more than double the previous week. That means that US exporters have already shipped 98% of the USDA's target for the season versus 94% typically at this time. After the close the USDA left good to excellent crop ratings unchanged at 62%. They said that 56% of the crop is blooming and that 17% is setting pods. Both are exactly in line with the 5-year averages. Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri have the worst crop ratings, with at least 20% of the crop in poor to very poor condition in those states. Wisconsin, North Dakota, Tennessee and Minnesota have the best crop ratings. Safras e Mercado raised their 2016 Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 99.8 MMT (the USDA are at 97 MMT). They said that they expected producers to plant a 3.8% higher area, taking plantings up to a record 32.9 million ha. Linn Group estimated 2015 US soybean yields at 44.1 bu/acre versus the USDA estimate of 46.0 bu/acre. Oil World forecast the Canadian canola crop down 11.3% to a 5-year low of 13.8 MMT, and said that 2015/16 exports would drop 12.7% to 7.55 MMT. They now have the global crop at 64 MMT, down 5 MMT from last year and 1.8 MMT below their previous estimate. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.07 3/4, down 7 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.99 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $356.00, down $5.10; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.68, down 10 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day with heavy losses. An improving weather pattern for the Midwest, and the prospect for potentially better crop ratings from the USDA after the close got fund money longs lightening the load. The USDA in fact left good to excellent ratings unchanged, in a manner of speaking, at 69%. There was however a 2 point shift from very good into excellent. They said that 55% of the crop is silking, up from 27% a week ago and 1 point behind the 5-year average for this time. Indiana has 26% of the crop rated poor to very poor. In North Carolina it's 22% and in Ohio it's 20%. "Weather forecasts look to be beneficial to the corn crop with higher than normal temps and near normal moisture expected over the next week," said Benson Quinn. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.16 MMT. Safras e Mercado sees the 2015/16 Brazilian summer corn area at 4.1 million ha, down 9.7% from a year ago. They see winter, or safrinha, corn plantings at 10.2 million ha, up 7.8% from a year ago. They have the total 2015/16 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 89.2 MMT versus the 2014/15 crop of 85.6 MMT. Ukraine said that they'd exported more than 1 MMT of grains already this season, including 620 TMT of corn. Linn Group estimated 2015 US corn yields at 162.0 bu/acre versus the USDA's estimate of 166.8 bu/acre. The US is forecast to have above normal temperatures on the plains, and near to below ones in the eastern corn belt through until the end of the month. Heat stress, if there is any, should be limited to Kansas/Nebraska. Reuters reported that Ukraine may lower its corn production forecast due to heat/dryness. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.05, down 15 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.16, down 15 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower across the three exchanges. The move lower came despite weekly export inspections of 489,089 MT topping trade estimates, although these were still hardly thrilling. Egypt's GASC announced a tender for US soft white wheat, US soft red winter wheat and/or Canadian soft wheat. They are also in the marker for soft wheat of EU/Black Sea origin, with the results expected tomorrow. The USDA said that the US 2015 winter wheat harvest was 75% done, one point ahead of normal and 10 points up on the week. Spring wheat crop conditions were lowered one point to 70% good to excellent, the same as this time last year. Taiwan are in the market for 104,350 MT of US wheat for Sep/Oct shipment. SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 96.5 MMT, down from a previous estimate of 98.0 MMT due to dryness. They cut wheat production by 1 MMT to 56 MMT. A Bloomberg survey estimated Russia’s 2015 wheat crop a little higher at 57.4 MMT versus the 2014 crop of 59.1 MMT. APK Inform said that Russian seaports exported 353 TMT of grains last week, up from 143 TMT the previous week, of which 296 TMT was wheat. SovEcon said that they expect the pace of Russian export to pick up very soon. The slow harvest and uncertainties over the new wheat export tax have been the reason for the relatively slow start to the season, they said. "There is talk that Russian officials have ironed out the methods used to determine what the exporters owe on export sales," noted Benson Quinn. That could be the catalyst to speed things up. There's been plenty of talk of dryness issues affecting the Canadian wheat crop this year. A Canadian Wheat Board crop tour, which starts tomorrow and ends on Friday, may shed some useful light on this. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.25 1/2, down 21 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.59, down 15 3/4 cents.