Chicago Grains All End Higher - Even Wheat!
05/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains, especially on the nears. Old crop supply remains tight, with US exporters having already shipped more beans than the USDA has them down to for the entire season. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are between zero and 200 TMT on old crop beans and 350,000-700,000 MT on new crop. Various private analysts are all pegging US yields and production this year at a little below the USDA. Informa raised their 2015 US soybean yield estimate from 45.1 bu/acre to 45.4 bu/acre, although that's still 0.6 bu/acre below the USDA. They see production this year at 3.789 billion bushels, with the USDA at 3.885 billion. Farm Futures Magazine pegged yields at 45.7 bu/acre with production at 3.768 billion bushels. FCStone were at 45.0 bu/acre and 3.797 billion bushels yesterday. A Lanworth crop tour ended today, with the results expected shortly. On the US weather front "Strong showers this week in the Great Plains may give way to hotter and drier weather ahead. A busy Midwest weather pattern expected in the next few days, as waves of showers ripple across the Upper Midwest, redeveloping in the Great Lakes states. Approximately 75% of Midwest corn and soybeans farms expect a heavy soaking rain. Very hot temperatures are also predicted, the first heat wave of the summer season. Maximum temperatures are expected to exceed 100F, reaching 105-107 F in Texas and Oklahoma, starting Friday and continuing at least through Monday. Midwest corn and soybeans would mostly avoid the extreme heat. Maximum temperatures are expected to be low to mid 80's F in the upcoming week, which is close to average for early August," said Martell Crop Projections. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.91 3/4, up 15 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.53 1/4, up 11 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $355.10, up $4.40; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 29.63, down 20 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents firmer. As with beans, various analysts are not quite so bullish on 2015 US corn production prospects as the USDA. Farm Futures Magazine estimated yields this year at 166.3 bushels/acre, down from the record 171 bushels set last year, and below the 166.8 bu/acre forecast by the USDA. They see production at 13.366 billion bushels versus the USDA's 13.53 billion estimate. Informa see production at 13.412 billion bushels, with an average yield of 165.4 bu/acre. FCStone estimated the 2015 US corn crop at 13.381 billion bushels yesterday, with an average yield of 165.0 bu/acre. "Hotter temperatures are predicted next week,potentially affecting corn and soybeans in Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota," said Martell Crop Projections. The crop in Europe appears to be in serious trouble this year. Bloomberg carried one report saying that the French crop is "simply fried" with the director general of Maiz’Europ’ saying that he'd spent the last 3 weeks surveying crops damaged by heat and drought, and that the French crop is in the worst condition that he has seen in 12 years. A Bloomberg survey pegged French production at an average 14.1 MMT, down 24% on last year. The Italian crop is also in trouble, estimated at an average 7.1 MMT, which is 23% lower than a year ago. The Romanian crop, Europe's second largest producer, is seen 19% lower at 9.8 MMT. They didn't canvass for production estimates in Hungary, which is Europe's third largest producing nation, but output there is also seen sharply lower this year. Coceral had that down 15% at 7.7 MMT back in June, and it's probably lower than that now. Bloomberg did ask for trade estimates on total EU-28 corn production and the average guess for that was 62.8 MMT, down 19% on a year ago, although one estimate was as low as 59 MMT. Ukraine said that they'd exported almost 1 MMT of corn between Jul 1 and Aug 4. Trade estimates for the weekly export sales report tomorrow are 250,000-450,000 MT on old crop, and 300,000-500,000 MT on new crop. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.72 3/4, up 4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher for a change, with Chicago leading the way. I guess you could call this a minor correction. As of last night's close Chicago wheat was down by almost 20% since the last day of June. Informa projected a US HRW wheat crop of 877 million bushels versus the USDA's 866 million estimate. They have the US 2015 all wheat crop at 2.159 billion bushels versus the USDA's 2.148 billion estimate. Egypt bought two cargoes of Russian wheat for Sep 11-20 shipment at prices that were miles below the best US offer. French, Romanian and Ukraine wheat offers were also snubbed. Both Agritel and ODA estimated this year's French soft wheat crop at a record high 38.9 MMT and 39.4 MMT respectively. Agritel said that harvesting of that crop could be complete by the weekend. There are one or two whispers of there being more feed grade wheat around in northern France this year. In Ukraine around 50-60% of the crop is said to only be of feed grade, with similar results in Romania and Bulgaria. India said that it's 2015 wheat harvest fell to 90.78 MMT from 95.85 MMT a year ago. The Indian government said that they'd already bought 28.1 MMT of domestic wheat for their state-owned stockpile. Argentine analysts Agritrend were said to have estimated the 2015/16 wheat crop there at only 10.0-10.5 MMT versus 13.9 MMT in 2014/15. Planting of that is now just about complete. Farmers have fallen out of love with wheat due to low prices and the regular government imposition of export quotas and are switching into other crops such as barley. That could provide a long range goal to export some US wheat to Brazil in 2016. Russia said that their 2015 grain harvest was 29.3% complete on 13.7 million ha producing a crop of 43.7 MMT to date. Yields are averaging 3.19 MT/ha versus 3.34 MT/ha this time last year. The wheat harvest is 38.9% complete on 10.4 million ha with production at 35.4 MMT and yields down from 3.61 MT/ha a year ago to an average of 3.42 MT/ha this time round. Belarus said that their 2015 grain harvest is 49% complete at 4 MMT, with yields averaging 3.61 MT/ha versus 3.98 MT/ha a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 400,000-600,000 MT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.02, up 8 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.89 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.15 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.
