Chicago Grains Closing Comments - Tuesday
04/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mixed amidst a general lack of fresh news. FCStone estimated this year's US crop at 3.797 billion bushels with an average yield of 45.0 bu/acre. The USDA were at 3.885 billion bushels and a yield of 46.0 bu/acre last month. Informa are due out with their crop production estimates sometime this week. The USDA are out with theirs next Wednesday. A Lanworth crop tour ends tomorrow. The Pro Farmer annual crop tour takes place August 16-20. Soybean demand could get a boost from falling world rapeseed production this year. Strategie Grains cut their forecast for the EU-28 rapeseed crop from 21.78 MMT to 21.4 MMT. The EU Commission cut their view from 21.7 MMT to 20.7 MMT. The USDA were at 21.4 MMT last month and pegged the 2014 crop at 24.3 MMT. Oil World forecast the world rapeseed crop down 7.4% to 63.8 MMT. They also trimmed global soybean output by 1% from their previous forecast and by 1.8% from a year ago to 312.7 MMT. Customs data shows that Brazil exported 8.4 MMT of soybeans in July, an increase of almost 40% versus July 2014. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.76, down 1 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.42 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $350.70, down $0.70; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 29.83, down 2 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a couple of cents or so higher. FCStone estimated the 2015 US corn crop at 13.381 billion bushels, with an average yield of 165.0 bu/acre. The USDA were at 13.530 billion bushels, with a yield of 166.8 bu/acre last month. The EU corn crop appears to be shrinking. The EU Commission cut their crop forecast by almost 3 MMT to 65.5 MMT, a fall of nearly 16% on 77.8 MMT a year ago. A Bloomberg survey estimated the EU-28 corn crop even lower at an average 62.5 MMT. The French crop was pegged at an average of 13.9 MMT. MaizEurop told Bloomberg that the French crop (excluding corn for seed) may fall to only 12.0-12.5 MMT this year. Irrigated corn yields may fall 10%-15%, and non-irrigated corn yields in the East of France could drop 20%-50%, they said. The French corn crop was in the worst condition since 2003 when production fell to 12 MMT, they added. Meanwhile, one Serbian analyst told Bloomberg that the corn harvest there is estimated to drop to 5 MMT “at best” versus 7.95 MMT last. Large production declines are also seen in Hungary and Romania. Taiwan bought 130,000 MT of Brazilian corn for Dec-Jan shipment. South Korea's MFG bought 134,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan-Feb shipment. CME Group has finally lifted its declaration of force majeure at all Illinois River terminals. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.78 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The market closed lower, there was no "Turnaround Tuesday" for wheat. Hopes for a bumper 2015 spring wheat harvest, at a time when US wheat is already struggling to compete internationally weigh. Egypt tendered for wheat for Sep 11-20 shipment. Few expect US wheat to feature, if anyone bothers to offer it at all. In their last tender the prices paid (a little over $205/tonne including freight) were around $20/tonne below US FOB levels, and that was on a delivered basis! That was for all Russian material. The most interesting thing about the results of tomorrow's tender will be to see what Russian wheat is offered at, as the rouble has fallen considerably since then, and given Russian exporter disquiet over the current floating export duty on wheat. Russia said that they will begin buying grain for the domestic intervention fund on Aug 11, which is said to be the earliest date on record. They began buying for the fund on Sep 30 last year. The prices on the table don't look very attractive though, at the equivalent of around $154/tonne for 3rd grade milling wheat in the European part of Russia. Iran said they they are our of the wheat market until April. Japan seeks 168,353 MT of food wheat from the US, Canada and Australia for Sept–Oct shipment in their regular weekly tender. Ukraine said that its wheat harvest was 86% complete on 5.9 million ha producing a crop of 22 MMT to date. Russia's wheat harvest is said to be 37.7% complete on over 10 million ha producing a crop of 34.6 MMT so far. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.93 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.85, down 4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.13 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents.
