Chicago Soybeans End At Lowest Levels Since Mar 2009
26/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed at fresh lows for the recent slump. The Chinese stock market was down again, despite recent efforts by their central bank to shore things up. The market is now at levels not seen since March 2009. China's Ministry of Commerce estimated August soybean imports at 5.71 MMT, down sharply from 9.5 MMT in July, albeit that this was a record high. The vast majority of that will likely come from South America as well, not the US. Argentine president elections are due to take place on October 25. Argentina’s leading opposition candidate has told farm groups that he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments. Local farmers there remain on strike until Friday. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 0.5-1.0 MMT for beans. For meal, sales of 50-275 TMT are what the market is expecting. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.77 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.65, down 12 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $324.40, down $3.20; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.12, down 70 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents lower. The US Energy Dept reported that US ethanol production dropped 13,000 barrels/day to 952,000 barrels/day for the week ending August 21. That's the the lowest production figure since the week ending May 1. Crude oil stocks remain at near 80-year highs. Ethanol stocks were steady at 18.6 million barrels. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated their 2015/16 grain crop at 60.46 MMT, with exports at an all-time high 37.0 MMT. Most of that will be corn. "The weather forecast is in flux transitioning into a hotter and drier pattern in the US heartland. This would be ideal for soggy corn fields in a wet summer growing season. Temperatures have chilled down in the Midwest the past few days, but are expected to warm up in the week ahead. August has been rather cool to date in Midwest corn and soybeans. Mostly dry conditions are expected in corn and soybeans, contrary to the extreme wetness that dominated for many weeks. A narrow band of heavy rain is predicted in the Upper Midwest in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. Strong thunderstorms would develop along an unstable horizontal front," said Martell Crop Projections. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 400-900 TMT. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished mostly lower. Egypt's GASC tendered for wheat for October shipment, with the results expected tomorrow. This will be a useful barometer to test Russian exporters willingness to partake, given the recent slump in value of the rouble and uncertainty over the current export duty. It will also tell us who else is competitive, just don't go expecting it to be the US. Russia’s President Putin said that the country plans to increase wheat supplies to Egypt this year. Russia sold 4.0 MMT of wheat to Egypt in 2014, covering 40% of their needs. Egypt's Supplies Minister said that the country has enough wheat bought already to last it until Feb 10. Thailand were said to have bought 300,000 MT of Black Sea feed wheat for Jan-Aug shipment. Tunisia bought 75,000 MT of optional origin soft wheat and 125,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat. Oil World said heavy rainfall in Argentina since the start of August may cause “significant” damage to their developing winter wheat crop. Production this year may fall to 8-9 MMT, down from 12.8 MMT a year ago, said Dr Cordonnier. That could present a window of opportunity for US wheat to be exported to Brazil once more. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 250-425 TMT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.89 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.66 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96 1/4, down 1/2 cent.
