Chicago Soybeans Trade Under $9/bu For First Time Since 2009

19/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with September trading below $9/bushel at one stage, that hasn't happened on a front month since 2009. Nov 15 closed below that level for the first time in the contract's history. Outside influences like the state of China's economy and continued weakness in crude oil weighed today. Argentina estimated farmer selling on 2014/15 soybeans at 62% versus 54% a year ago. Day 3 of the ProFarmer Crop Tour in Western Iowa found soybean pod-counts of 1,282 in a 3-ft by 3-ft plot, up from 1,173.6 a year earlier, report Bloomberg. In Illinois they found pod-counts of 1,191.22 versus 1,299.17 a year ago. The tour ends tomorrow and final yield estimates are due Friday. Dr Cordonnier estimated US soybean yields at 44.0 bu/acre, up from 43.5 bu/acre previously, but still well below the USDA's 46.9 bu/acre. "Fundamentally, we continue to point to variability in the crop combined with increasing disease problems as a risk, with expectations that this crop is closer to 44 bushels than it is 47 bushels per acre, with acreage likely to drop in future reports as well," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report on beans vary from as little as 200 TMT to over 1 MMT. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $9.03 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.93 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $324.00, down $0.60; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.89, down 43 points and the lowest for a front month since January 2007.

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent higher, doing it's best to ignore what was happening to soybeans. The ProFarmer crop tour in Western Iowa found corn yields estimated at 158.9 bu/acre, down sharply from an average of 178.75 bu/acre in the region a year earlier, said Bloomberg. Corn yields in Illinois averaged 169.42 bu/acre, also down significantly on the state’s average yield estimate of 196.96 bu/acre on the tour last year. Dr Cordonnier raised his US corn yield estimate from 164.5 bu/acre to 165.0 bu/acre. The USDA are currently at 168.8 bu/acre. Argentina estimated farmer selling on 2014/15 corn at 67% versus 63% a year ago. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that August heat and dryness could cut corn yields there by around 10-15% this year. These conditions are also causing premature ripening of the crop, they added. A private crop tour of Ukraine was said to have pegged this year's corn crop at only 21 MMT, which is 6 MMT below where the USDA currently sit. Shanghai JC Intelligence say that the Chinese government are considering cutting the price it pays local corn growers (said to be close to $300/tonne last year), possibly as early as the impending 2015/16 marketing year which begins in October, in an effort to simply stop stock-piling so much of the crop. They are looking at moving away from a fixed price to a market-based pricing system, they say. Local prices could be cut by 20% analysts suggest. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the Argentine 2015/16 corn area at 2.72 million ha, down 20% from a year ago. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the 350-750 TMT area. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.67 1/4, up 1 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.78 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. Brazil are tendering for 146,000 MT of wheat, 30,000 MT of Australian, 35,000 MT of Canadian and 81,000 MT of US origin, according to Reuters. Jordan announced a tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Two South Korean companies tendered for 27,400 MT and 23,900 MT of US wheat for November delivery. Ukraine exported 769,800 MT of wheat in July, 18% more than a year ago and more than double the 5-year average, UkrAgroConsult said. They appear to be taking advantage of Russian exporter reluctance whilst they wait for the government to alter the current export duty on wheat. Russia's wheat exports Jul 1 to Aug 9 were only 1.66 MMT, which is less than half the level of a year ago, according to their Ag Ministry. Russia's 2015 wheat harvest is said to be now past halfway done on 13.7 million ha producing a crop of 43.7 MMT to date. Growers there have now begun winter grain planting for the 2016 harvest, the sowing of which is now said to be 2.6% complete. Russia said it was aiming to buy 2 MMT of domestic grain at intervention between now and the end of the year. Argentina estimated farmer selling on 2014/15 wheat at 92% versus 67% a year ago. Heavy rain there is said to be possibly causing some winter wheat crop losses. The National Australia Bank projected wheat production ther at only 21.6 MMT, which is 4.4 MMT lower than the current USDA forecast. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the 400,000-675,000 MT region. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.96 1/4, up 2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.74 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.08 1/4, unchanged.