Choppy Trade Continues In Chicago Grains For A Fourth Day
13/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with good gains, at least partially reversing some of Wednesday's steep losses. Weekly export sales came in at 96,300 MT on old crop and 660,500 MT on news crop - the latter being primarily for China and unknown destinations. Actual exports themselves were only 178,100 MT, down 16 percent from the previous week and 14 percent below the prior 4-week average. Cumulative shipments are now 48.86 MMT, with a further 1.88 MMT worth of outstanding sales. The USDA had full season exports at 49.67 MMT in yesterday's WASDE report, meaning that 0.81 MMT of the outstanding sales need to be shipped by the end of the month to hit that target. MDA CropCast increased their world soybean production estimate by 1.01 MMT from a week ago, thanks to increased potential in the US. They now have output there at 102.18 MMT. The USDA were 106.59 MMT yesterday. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean exports at 52.3 MMT, pegging ending stocks at 6.27 MMT, up 54% versus 2014/15. Pakistani importers were reported to have booked 66,000 MT of soybeans from Brazil for May 2016 shipment. Expiring tomorrow Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.93, up 42 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.27, up 17 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $344.10, down $1.90; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.91, down 12 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 6-7 cents higher. Weekly export sales of 29,200 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were down noticeably from previous week and 87 percent below the prior 4-week average. New crop sales were 501,900 MT. Exports of 840,600 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 23 percent below the prior 4-week average. In sorghum there were net sales reductions of 61,900 MT for 2014/15 and sales of 166,500 MT for 2015/16 for China (114,000 MT) and unknown destinations (52,500 MT). MDA CropCast raised their world corn production estimated by 2.46 MMT to 950.1 MMT. They added 4.62 MMT to Brazil, taking their crop up to 79.4 MMT and increased US production by 0.38 MMT to 344.8 MMT. Ukraine's crop was lowered 1.52 MMT to 23.2 MMT and Europe's was reduced by 0.4 MMT from a week ago to 56.8 MMT. Germany's DRV sliced their estimate for corn production there this year to only 3.91 MMT, down from the 4.64 MMT predicted in July and the 5.14 MMT produced in 2014. German corn was “suffering greatly” from heat and drought, and a significant yield decline is expected, they said. Russia's Ag Ministry said that the country should produce 100 MMT of grains this year, and possibly up to 2-3 MMT more than that. That's not far away from last year's 105.3 MMT harvest, and should include a record corn crop this year. Argentine farmers said that they will stage a commercial strike lasting 5 days from Aug 24. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.63 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.75 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market posted fairly decent gains, although not enough to entirely reverse yesterday's losses. Weekly export sales of 421,600 MT for delivery in the 2015/16 marketing year were down 50 percent from the previous week's impressive total and 28 percent below the prior 4-week average. There were also net sales of 600 MT for 2016/17 reported for Italy. Exports of 399,500 MT were up 27 percent from the previous week. The Kazakh Ag Ministry reported Aug 1 grain stocks of 4.5 MMT including more than 4 MMT of wheat. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated Argentine wheat plantings at only 3.4 million ha, down from 3.5 million previously and 300,000 less than the Buenos Aires Exchange say got planted. MDA CropCast added 5.73 MMT To their world wheat production estimate, taking that up to 715.2 MMT. Russia got an extra 1.76 MMT, taking their crop to 58 MMT. Ukraine got an additional 1.46 MMT, taking production there up to 24.5 MMT and Kazakhstan's output was increased by 1.33 MMT to 13.8 MMT. The world barley crop was raised 1.31 MMT to 137.6 MMT, largely thanks to a 1.25 MMT increase for Ukraine where production is now pegged at 7.6 MMT. Egypt bought three cargoes of wheat in their tender - two of Ukraine origin and one from Russia. Jordan extended the deadline in a tender to buy 100,000 MT of wheat to Aug 25 from Aug 19. They are also in the market for 100,000 MT of barley for Dec/Jan shipment. Brussels said that they'd issued 349,073 MT of soft wheat export licences this past week, down 6% on a week ago. Barley export licences slumped 58% to 161,105 MT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat is at $5.08 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.06 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.34, up 8 1/4 cents.
