Nogger's Blog

02/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. FCStone estimated US 2015 soybean yields at 45.4 bu/acre, up from 45.0 bu/acre previously. Despite the rise there was a small 6 million bushel reduction to their production estimate taking that down to 3.791 billion bushels. The USDA were at 3.916 billion in August and production last year was 3.969 billion. Informa are due out with their latest 2015 US production estimates this week. They had production at 3.789 billion and yields at 45.4 bu/acre a month ago. The next USDA numbers are due next Friday. Further negative economic data out of China overnight leans bearish. Tomorrow's weekly export sales report will be important, to perhaps re-assure the market that they are still buying beans actively. Prices are after all at multi-year lows. Trade estimates for soybean sales are around 550,000 MT to 1.15 MMT, with meal sales around 50,000 MT to 200,000 MT. South Korea's MFG bought 60,000 MT of US or South American soymeal for Feb shipment. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.83 3/4, down 1 cent; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.74, unchanged; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $318.10, up $0.20; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.76, down 46 points.

Corn: The market closed around 1-2 cents easier. FCStone increased their US corn yield estimate from 165.0 bu/acre to 165.9 bu/acre. They now see production at 13.457 billion bushels versus 13.381 billion previously. The USDA were at 13.69 billion last month and output a year ago was 14.216 billion. Informa are expected out either tomorrow or Friday, they had production at 13.412 billion bushels with yields estimated at 165.4 bu/acre last time. The latest weekly report from the US Energy Dept showed that ethanol production was down 4,000 barrels per day to 948,000 bpd during the week ending August 28. China is now on holiday for the rest of the week, so hopefully there won't be any further bearish news from them for the next few days. That said, it's not unusual for them to alter interest rates etc over a weekend. The Chinese market will re-open on Monday, but the US markets are then shut for Labor Day. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500,000 MT to 1.05 MMT for corn. South Korea's MFG were reported to have bought 204,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb shipment. The country is also said to be in the market for more of the same. Very early corn yields in Ukraine are reported to be down versus a year ago and well below the 6.59 MT/ha national average that the USDA is predicting this year. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.54, down 2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The market closed with some fairly steep losses, especially on the nears. Chicago wheat closed at the lowest levels on a front month since early May, and not far away from being at the lowest in more than 5 years. The trade will be nervous that tomorrow's weekly export sales might disappoint, as they have done frequently of late, although last week the opposite was true. Trade estimates for this week's sales are in a fairly modest range of 250,000 MT to 520,000 MT. Anything less than that would be a kick in the teeth. Even Europe is now struggling to find export homes for it's larger than anticipated wheat harvest, French sales have dried up, and Paris wheat closed at the lowest for a front month since September 2014 tonight. The Paris Dec 15 contract also set lifetime contract lows. Egypt issued another tender for wheat, it's third within the last 8 days. On each of the previous two occasions though it has only bought one cargo each time, one from Russia last Thursday and one from Ukraine last Friday. With sellers seemingly falling over themselves to grab a share of the business, it looks like GASC are simply testing the water again, to see how low the offers will come in this time round. So despite prices being at the lowest levels in years, little more than $190/tonne including freight last week, I don't expect them to be in for volume tomorrow. Neither is US wheat likely to figure. South Korea are said to be in the market for 50,000 MT of Australian wheat for Feb shipment. Stats Canada are due out with their Jul 31 stocks report tomorrow. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.73, down 11 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.48, down 10 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.89 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents.