Nogger's Blog

04/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and for the week. US markets are closed Monday for Labor Day. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 7 bulls, 13 bears and 5 neutrals on soybeans. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 64.3% sold on their 2014/15 soybeans versus 56.5% sold this time a year ago. CONAB come out on Friday with their final 14/15 Brazilian crop estimates. The USDA are also out next Friday with their updated WASDE numbers, including US yield and production numbers. There’s some history of the USDA raising their soybean yield estimate in September in similar weather years, before lowering it again in October, said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money flipping from a small net long to a net short of 17,302 contracts in beans for the week through to Tuesday night. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.77 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.66 1/2, down 3 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $313.90, down $2.60; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.44, down 32 points. For the week Sep 15 beans were down 16 cents, meal was $7.50 lower and oil lost 135 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 1-2 cents higher on the day and around unchanged for the week. The Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 8 bulls, 11 bears and 6 neutrals on soybeans. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 66.5% sold on corn, very similar to 65.5% a year ago. South Korea bought 61,000 MT of optional US or South American corn for March shipment in a tender. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the corn harvest there was now 98.4% complete and they held steady with their production estimate at 26 MMT. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money increasing their net long in corn for the week through to Tuesday night. Their new long-holding is now just shy of 77k lots. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest was 4.7% done on 132.4k ha producing a crop of 647.4 TMT to date. Yields are said to be averaging almost 4% down on last year at 4.89 MT/ha. Ukraine has only harvested 18k ha of corn so far, but early yields of only 4.44 MT/ha are well down on a year ago and also far below the average that the USDA has pencilled in this year of 6.59 MT/ha. France dropped corn rating one point to 55% good to very good. The French Ministry raised their corn production estimate to 13.5 MMT. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.49 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.63, up 1 1/2 cents. For the week Sep 15 was down 1/4 of a cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer on the day, but lower for the week. Today was perhaps due to a bit of book-squaring/profit-taking ahead of the long weekend. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 93.9% sold on their 2014/15 wheat crop versus 68.3% sold this time a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that around 2.3% of the Argentine winter wheat area had been lost to excessive flooding. They are sticking by their planting estimate of 3.7 million ha although others are lower. The Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 4 bulls, 11 bears and 10 neutrals on wheat. South Korea bought 80,100 MT of Australian wheat in a tender. Russia said that their 2015 wheat harvest was 65.7% done on 17.7 million ha producing a crop of 51.1 MMT to date. Yields are said to be now averaging 8.8% lower than a year ago at 2.89 MT/ha. Winter plantings for the 2016 harvest are 26.6% complete on 4.5 million ha. Ukraine said that its winter planting was already 80% complete on 6.58 million ha. The French Farm Ministry raised their estimate for this year's soft wheat crop there to an all-time high 40.8 MMT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.57 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.48 1/2, up 7 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.86 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 19 1/4 cents lower, with Kansas down 9. 1/4 cents and sees Minneapolis losing 4 1/4 cents.