Chicago Grains End Lower - Led By Beans
28/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 12 cents lower. Weekly export inspections came in at 530,493 MT, below the expected 550-850,000 MT. Cumulative season to date totals are 95% down on this time last year. The USDA announced 1 MMT of beans sold to China for 2016/17 shipment, which is probably part of last week's "showcase" deal to buy more than 13 MMT over the next two years. The USDA also announced 249,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2015/16 shipment today. The USDA said that the 2015 US soybean harvest had advanced 14 points for the week through to Sunday night and was now 21% complete, up from 16% done this time last year. They said that 74% of the crop is dropping leaves versus 56% last week and 70% a year ago. Good to excellent ratings fell one point to 62% versus 72% a year ago. US harvest pressure may soon be starting to mount, just as Brazil gets going with planting what is expected to be another record soybean area, with growers there encouraged by the slumping value of the real to all time lows against the US dollar. "Analyst Thomas Mielke forecast US soybean futures to find new contract lows over the next few weeks, with the market oversupplied," reported Agrimoney. Recall that the seasonal trend has beans often, although not always, putting in the harvest lows in October, so Mielke (of Oil World fame) could be right. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 67.89% of their 2014/15 soybean crop sold versus 59.79% a year ago. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.76 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.80 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.70, down $4.00; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.18, down 54 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents lower. Weekly export inspections of 809,386 MT were in line with trade estimates of 750-900,000 MT. Season to date inspections are still only 87% of what they were this time last year. Mexico and Egypt are said to be seeking corn. Bangladesh are said to be buying Brazilian corn, after neighbouring India's crop has been reduced by drought. Corn production in India is forecast around 15% lower than a year ago following back to back summer droughts. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that their corn crop is 71.93% sold versus 71.37% a year ago. The USDA left US corn crop ratings unchanged at 68% good to excellent. They said that the US 2015 harvest was now 18% complete, up 8 points on a week ago (and 7 points ahead of this time last year) but 5 points behind the 5-year average. Maturity is running at 71%, one point behind the recent average. The crop is said to be now 97% dented, in line with the 5-year average. Copa Cogeca estimated the EU-28 corn crop at 55.7 MMT versus 73.8 MMT a year ago. They see the French crop at 13.7 MMT versus 18.0 MMT a year ago. Sharp drops are also forecast from other leading EU corn producing nations, like Italy (down from 8.3 MMT to 7.0 MMT), Romania (down from 11.3 MMT to 7.6 MMT) and Hungary (down from 8.9 MMT to 6.0 MMT). Ukraine's 2015 corn harvest is said to be 18% complete with yields averaging 4.49 MT/ha, still well below the figure that the USDA has factored in. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.86 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.98, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed generally a couple of cents lower to unchanged across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of 651,194 MT were a bit better than trade ideas of 350-550,000 MT. Cumulative season to date exports are still only 84% of wheat they were a year ago though, and note that the USDA has these down to increase by almost 10% this season. Competition from the Black Sea, Europe and elsewhere remains fierce for US wheat exports. There was talk of some much need rains having fallen in the Ukraine and Russia over the weekend, which would help winter wheat plantings. More rains are in the forecast for Russia’s main southern wheat areas this week. Russia's phytosanitary service said that the country had exported 972.5 TMT of grains in the past week, including 730.5 TMT of wheat. Exports so far this season are 10.8 MMT of grains, of which 8.28 MMT has been wheat, they added. Oman are said to be seeking 60,000 MT of Russian wheat for Nov shipment. Their wheat export duty should have been eased by then. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that their 2014/15 wheat crop is 98.36% sold versus 70.73% a year ago. Sales for 2015/16 are running at 2.10% sold versus 5.36% a year ago. The USDA said that US winter wheat plantings are 31% done, four points behind the norm, but up 12 points on a week ago. Emergence is placed at 7% versus 11% typically at this time and 13% this time last year. Stats Canada are due to release their 2015/16 wheat production estimates on Friday. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.05 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.97 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.22 3/4, unchanged.
