Chicago Grains End Mixed, Some Turnaround Tuesday Signs In Evidence
29/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher in a mini Turnaround Tuesday, although they didn't quite manage to reverse all of yesterday's losses. The USDA comes out tomorrow with their September quarterly stocks and small grains report. For beans the trade is expecting US Sep 1 stocks at 205 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 165-250 million and versus stocks of only 92 million a year previously. AgRural said that Brazilian soybean planting is 1.7% complete versus 1.6% a year ago and 1.3% for the five year average. Mato Grosso is dry, waiting for rain. What has been planted there is likely to be on irrigated land. This isn't unusual for this time of year, "once the monsoon begins, typically by mid October, rainfall should increase sharply to 200-250 millimeters (8-10 inches)," said Martell Crop Projections. "It’s not been proven the El Nino has a strong impact on rainfall in Mato Grosso, but it is a known rain maker in south Brazil’s leading soybean states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, although on the negative side, Rio Grande do Sul may be subject to episodic flooding with the El Nino in effect," they add. There's also trade talk of El Nino disrupting palm production in Indonesia and Malaysia, which could support soyoil. At a vegoil conference in India, analyst James Fry was reported to have predicted crude palm oil prices rising 20% by Q1 of 2016 and by 40% from current levels to $700/MT FOB by mid-2016. The Malaysian palm oil market closed at 15 month highs tonight. Oil World's Thomas Mielke estimated that December meal futures could fall to $280-$290 versus tonight's close of $305.50. He estimated 2015/16 global soybean ending stocks at a record 87-88 MMT versus 85 MMT from the USDA. There's talk of some very good yields being reported back from parts of Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.84 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.87 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $305.70, up $1.00; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.46, up 28 points.
Corn: The market closed around 2 cents firmer, essentially reversing yesterday's declines. Fresh news was pretty light. Trade estimates for tomorrow's USDA Sep 1 quarterly stocks report have these at an average of 1.739 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 1.647-1.850 billion and September 1 2014 corn stocks were 1.232 billion. Concerns about the global, and particularly China’s economy continue. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2% today. China’s Golden Week starts Thursday, meaning that their markets will be closed from Oct 1st through to October 7th. The regular weekly US ethanol production report comes out tomorrow. Production last week was only 938,000 barrels per day, down from 961,000 bpd the previous week and the lowest since early May. It will be a concern if that trend continues. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was almost 30% complete on 883k ha, producing a crop of 4.2 MMT to date. Yields are said to be averaging 5.03 MT/ha versus 4.90 MT/ha a year ago and the USDA's final forecast of 5.00 MT/ha. Things don't look so rosy in Ukraine, where the harvest is 18% done on 735k ha for a crop of 3.3 MMT so far. Current average yields are only 4.49 MT/ha versus the USDA's projected 6.59 MT/ha final yield estimate. Stats Canada will updated Canadian crop estimates on Friday. Their corn crop is estimated at an average 12.3 MMT versus the 2014 crop of 11.5 MMT. Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday that he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments. So he sounds like a nice man! Their elections are on October 25th. There could still be a bit more US harvest pressure to come, with the crop rapidly reaching maturity and therefore passing any vulnerability to possible early frost damage - not that there's any in the forecast just yet. Corn in Ohio is said to be 70% mature compared to the five year average at this time of only 53%. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.89, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.99 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The market closed around 2-3 cents lower. Trade estimates for tomorrow's USDA Sep 1 quarterly stocks report average 2.149 billion bushels from within a range of estimates of 1.987-2.285 billion and versus September 1 2014 all wheat stocks of 1.907 billion. The USDA will also update us on US wheat production tomorrow, with the all wheat crop estimated at an average of 2.133 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 2.105-2.160 billion. The USDA's August estimate was 2.136 billion and output last year was 2.026 billion. Russia said that it had harvested 87% of it's 2015 wheat area, producing a crop of 60.3 MMT in bunker weight so far (ie. before cleaning and screening). Yields are said to be averaging 2.57 MT/ha versus 2.74 MT/ha this time a year ago and compared to the USDA's final season estimate of 2.37 MT/ha. It's the less productive areas that are generally left to be wrapped up, so the final figure should end up lower than the current 2.57 MT/ha. The 2015 Russian barley crop is past 85% harvested at 17.3 MMT with yields averaging 2.27 MT/ha versus 2.40 MT/ha a year ago. Interestingly, the USDA increased their final yield estimate from 2.13 MT/ha to 2.44 MT/ha last month, so achieving the latter now looks unlikely. Japan is tendering for it's regular weekly 128,489 MT of food wheat for Oct-Nov shipment of US, Canadian and Australian origin with the results due Thursday. Friday's Stats Canada report is expected to peg Canadian all wheat production at 25.1 MMT this year, up from their August estimate of 24.625 MMT but down versus the 2014 crop of 29.419 MMT. There's speculation that Egypt's GASC may increase the protein level required in their wheat tenders, which could favour Black Sea material over French and US wheat. Last night's crop progress report shows US winter wheat plantings are lagging normal as dry weather holds things up in some states. Oklahoma plantings are only 21% complete versus the five year average of 33% done at this time. There's talk of recent heavy rain in southern Brazil possibly causing some quality issues for wheat there. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.03 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.94 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.20 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
