Chicago Grains Position Themselves For Tomorrow's USDA Report
10/09/15 -- Soycomplex: The entire complex closed with little change. The trade seems to have positioned itself where it wants to be heading into tomorrow's WASDE report. That is expected to peg 2015 US soybean production at 3.841 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg survey. US production was pegged at 3.916 billion bushels by the USDA last month and production last year was 3.969 billion. MDA CropCast went a little lower than that today, even if they did up their estimate 22 million bushels, with a figure of 3.776 billion due to improved rains in some of the drier areas. A different survey came up with an average estimate of 3.869 billion bushels from within a range of estimates of 3.791-3.935 billion. Yields were pegged at 46.4 bu/acre, down 0.5 bu/acre from last month. US 2014/15 soybean ending stocks are expected to fall from 240 million bushels last month to around 230 million. US new crop ending stocks are forecast at around 415 million bushels versus 470 million a month ago. World 2014/15 ending stocks are seem little changed from last time at 80.15 MMT. World 2015/16 carryout is estimated at 86.21 MMT versus 86.88 MMT a month ago.The FAO today estimated the world 2015/16 soybean crop at 318 MMT, up 2 MMT from previously. They cut 3 MMT off global 2015/16 ending stocks to 52 MMT, although this is still 3% higher than last season's record level, they said. Celeres estimated Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean planted area at 32.2 million ha, up 2.3% from a year ago. They see production at 97.1 MMT, almost identical to the USDA. Conab are due to give us their first 2015/16 Brazilian production estimates tomorrow. Also due tomorrow are the holiday-delayed weekly export sales numbers. A strong week is expected, with bean sales of 1.0-1.5 MMT. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.84 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.74, up 1 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $311.40, down $1.10; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.87, up 27 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents higher on ideas that the USDA will cut US yields and production in tomorrow's report. A Bloomberg survey has production at 13.484 billion bushels, another has a figure of 13.559 billion, from within a range of estimates of 13.471-13.870 billion. The USDA's August estimate was 13.686 billion and 2014/15 US final corn production was 14.216 billion. Corn yields are estimated at 167.6 bu/acre, from within a range of estimates of 166.1-170.5 bu/acre. The USDA August's estimate was 168.8 bu/acre and 2014/15 US final corn yields were 171.0 bu/acre. US 2014/15 corn carryout is seen at 1.761 billion bushels from within a range of estimates of 1.722-1.779 billion and down slightly from the USDA's August estimate of 1.772 billion. New crop corn ending stocks are seen at 1.643 billion bushels. The range of estimates are 1.511-1.832 billion and the USDA's August estimate was 1.713 billion. World 2014/15 ending stocks are seen little changed from last time at 197.05 MMT. New crop global carryout is seen a little lower than last month's 195.09 MMT at 193.44 MMT. The FAO estimated the world 2015/16 corn crop at 1011 MMT, up 4 MMT from a month ago due to better prospects in the US, Brazil and Argentina more than offsetting reduced expectations for Europe. World 2015/16 ending stocks were seen by them 5 MMT higher than previously at 226 MMT. The weekly US Energy Dept report showed that US ethanol production rose to 958,000 barrels per day last week, up from 927,000 bpd the previous week. Celeres estimated Brazil’s 2015/16 total corn crop at 87.0 MMT. The USDA were only at 79 MMT last month. Safras e Mercado said that Brazil’s 2014/15 safrinha corn crop is now 95% harvested. Conab will give us revised 2014/15 estimates tomorrow along with their first peek into 2015/16. Last month they had 2014/15 total Brazilian corn production estimated at 84.3 MMT. S&P today downgraded Brazil's debt to junk status and the real plunged even lower than the previous record low versus the USD set in 2002. An a big day for numbers, trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are around 300-600,000 MT. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on what looks like consolidation, book-squaring and/or profit-taking ahead of tomorrow's USDA report. It was most probably a combination of all three, not that the USDA are expected to throw up any big surprises for wheat - tomorrow's report is much more likely to be all about corn and beans - but you just never quite know with the USDA. Trade estimates for tomorrow have US 2015/16 all wheat ending stocks estimated at an average 865 million bushels from within a range of estimates of 850-885 billion and versus the USDA's August estimate of 850 million. World 2014/15 wheat ending stocks are seen little changed at 209.84 MMT and global 2015/16 carryout is estimated at an average 221.90 MMT, also barely altered from a month ago. So as you can see, there are no big surprises factored in anywhere there, EU wheat production might be in for an increase from last month's 147.8 MMT thanks to France's record crop I guess. FranceAgriMer have raised their forecast for that to 40.7 MMT, up 8.5% from last year. MDA CropCast raised their outlook on the world wheat crop this year by 0.68 MMT to 715.5 MMT due to beneficial rains in Australia. They also added 0.28 MMT to the global barley crop taking that up to 138.4 MMT for similar reasons. The FAO have the world wheat crop this year considerably higher at 728 MMT, up 5 MMT from a month ago. This month's increase is due to higher output in the EU, Ukraine and Russia and improved prospects for Australia, they said. World 2015/16 carryout was increased 4 MMT to 202 MMT, which according to their figures is a 13 year high. Russia's Ag Ministry said that it had prepared a draft proposal that would alter the current export duty on wheat, without giving any details away. If they are to raise the ceiling at which the duty kicks in, as trade organisations have requested, then that could see their exports pick up sharply. This seems like a possibility now that they are more than two-thirds through with their 2015 wheat harvest, and presumably confident in a 60 MMT+ crop. Production so far is already said to be at 52.7 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 250-500,000 MT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.68, up 6 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.53 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.91 1/4, up 3 cents.
