Nogger's Blog

03/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite the USDA announcing 773,400 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2015/16 delivery along with 110,000 MT of US beans sold to China, also for 2015/16 shipment. Weekly export sales came in as net reductions of 60,500 MT for 2014/15 and new crop sales that topped 1.5 MMT, primarily for unknown destinations (947,700 MT) and China (489,600 MT). They're some pretty impressive numbers. A market that still goes down with supportive information like this tells you something - that the bears have full control of this market. With the 2015 US harvest impending there could be more pressure to come, especially if early yield reports are positive. Allendale yesterday pegged these at 45.4 bu/acre with production at 3.971 bu acre. That would be the second largest yield on record beaten only by last year. Informa topped that today with a yield estimate of 47 bu/acre, slightly higher than the USDA's current 46.9 bu/acre forecast. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.79 3/4, down 4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.69 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $316.50, down $1.60; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at $26.76, unchanged.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. Weekly export sales came in at 112,700 MT on old crop, but only a poor 328,300 MT on the new crop. Trade estimates had been for combined sales of 500,000 MT to over 1 MMT, so these were a disappointment. In a bear market like this one that proved to be difficult to swallow. Allendale yesterday estimated US corn yields at 167.1 bu/acre, with production this year at 13.548 billion bushels. That would be the second largest yield on record. As with beans, Informa topped that today with a figure of 168.8 bu/acre, up from a previous estimate of 165.4 bu/acre. They now see total production of 13.688 billion bushels. Both those numbers are now consistent with the USDA's August estimates. Russia said that it had currently harvested 3.8% of it's 2015 corn crop and that yields are currently averaging 4.87 MT/ha, down from 5.48 MT/ha a year ago at this time. The USDA has them down to average 5.0 MT/ha this year. In Brazil, farmers in Mato Grosso state are reporting record large safrinha corn yields. Local analysts IMEA are now predicting a safrinha corn crop for the state of 21 MMT, up 6 MMT from their initial estimate. Brazilian corn prices are up sharply, unlike those in the US, thanks to a 30% devaluation of the Brazilian real versus the US dollar since the turn of the year. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.47 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.61 1/2, down 6 cents.

Wheat: Well, with beans and corn lower it was always going to be unlikely that the wheat market would stand out like a shining beacon, and so it proved. Weekly export sales of only 277,500 MT let the side down again. News of the prices being paid in North Africa by Algeria and Egypt in their tenders today rammed home the message that US wheat is simply far too dear. Today's export sales backed up that story. Russia staged a clean sweep in the GASC tender, despite French prices being dropped considerably from last week. French wheat futures closed at more than 5-year lows today as their silos remain full, and exports stay slack. Chicago wheat slipped to new five-year lows today, whilst in Kansas City things are at levels not seen for 8-1/2 years. Jordan seeks 100,000 MT hard wheat of optional origin for Nov-Jan shipment, along with a similar volume of barley for the same period. Stats Canada estimated Jul 31 all wheat stocks there at 7.11 MMT versus an average trade estimate of 6.5 MMT. Russia said that it's wheat harvest was 62.5% complete on 16.8 million ha producing a crop of 49.7 MMT to date. The Russian Ag Minister said that he saw no reason to alter the current export duty on wheat, saying that full season grain exports would total 25-30 MMT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.56 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.41 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.84 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.