Nogger's Blog

17/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mostly a little lower and within touching distance of the recent multi-year lows. The Fed made no change to US interest rates this time round. The USDA announced 298,000 MT of US soybeans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. They also reported weekly export sales of 912,000 MT for 2015/16 which were primarily for China (458,500 MT) and unknown destinations (210,600 MT). Meal sales came in at 41,000 MT for 2014/15 and 198,500 MT for 2015/16. Trade estimates had been for bean sales of 900 TMT to 1.3 MMT and meal sales of 100-200 TMT. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.1% today. Media reports say that Cargill Investment in China say that the country's 2015/16 soybean imports may fall for the first time in 10 years. The USDA currently have them down to rise 2 MMT to 79 MMT. The Argentina Ag Ministry estimated the nation's 2014/15 soybean crop at 61.4 MMT versus the USDA's 60.8 MMT. MDA CropCast have production in Argentina in 2014/15 at 60.45 MMT, but raised their view for 2015/16 by 0.52 MMT to 61.4 MMT. They trimmed 0.72 MMT off Brazil's 2015/16 soybean crop, taking that down to a still record 97.58 MMT. The USDA are at 97 MMT for that, although some estimates are above 100 MMT. MDA CropCast also raised their forecast for this year's US soybean crop by 49 million bushels to 3.826 million (or up 1.34 MMT to 104.13 MMT). Ukraine said that it's 2015 soybean harvest was 25% complete, along with 35% of the nation's sunflower crop. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found just one lone bull, along with 12 bears and 9 neutrals on bean prices. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.84 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.88 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $313.20, down $3.10; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.67, down 1 point.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. The market seemed to initially take the Fed decision not to raise rates as friendly for corn. No rate rise equals a less strong dollar equals more exports, right? However, very quickly this seemed to turn to a "the world economy must be in a really bad way here if we can't even risk a 0.25% rate rise" mindset, and so prices retreated into the red. Weekly export sales of 533,000 MT for delivery in 2015/16 were in line with trade expectations. Chinese analysts estimated the country’s 2015/16 DDGs imports at 4.5 MMT, down 13% versus 2014/15. Dr Cordonnier said that this year's full season corn crop in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul will fall 10% to the lowest on records going back 45 years. The state is around 32% planted so far, and some of what got sown early has been killed off already by last weekend's frost event. Some of that may be resown, but others will replant with beans instead which are currently a far more profitable crop to grow in Brazil, he said. Strategie Grains cut their forecast for the 2015 EU-28 corn crop by 2.3 MMT from a month ago to 57.4 MMT, a 24% decline on last season's record production. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was 14.6% complete on 407.6k ha, producing a crop of 2.0 MMT to date. Yields are said to be averaging 5.0 MT/ha, marginally ahead of 4.98 MT/ha a year ago. In Ukraine this year's corn harvest is only 6% done on 248k ha, producing a crop of 1.07 MMT to date. Yields here are currently averaging 4.29 MT/ha, which is still well below current USDA final estimate. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for the 2015 US corn crop by 86 million bushels to 13.651 million bu (up 2.18 MMT to 346.7 MMT). The Argentina Ag Ministry estimated the country’s 2014/15 corn crop at 33.8 MMT. The Bloomberg survey mentioned above found 6 bulls, 7 bears and 9 neutrals on corn. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.79 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.91, down 6 1/4 cents,

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 6-7 cents lower. As mentioned before, wheat seems to need a leg up from corn if it is going to rally, and yet again it didn't get one today. Whilst there may be a shortfall in Europe's corn production this year, there certainly isn't one in the case of wheat - or barley come to that. Stategie Grains today raised their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop by 3.5 MMT from a month ago to 147.5 MMT, which is now just 1% below last season's record. They also added 1.6 MMT to Europe's barley crop this year, taking that up to 60.4 MMT, now similar to last season's levels. There are some reports that Australia's 2015/16 wheat crop may also beat early season expectations. Some are suggesting that this could now come in at more than 27.0 MMT. ABARES last estimate was 25.28 MMT and the USDA were at 26.0 MMT last week. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for this year's Russian wheat crop by 2.15 MMT from a week ago to 60.2 MMT. They also added 1.38 MMT to Ukraine's crop taking that up to 25.9 MMT. In addition they increased the world barley crop by 3.5 MMT to 141.9 MMT, with Russia hiked 2.62 MMT to 19.3 MMT and Ukraine up 0.86 MMT to 8.4 MMT. Russia said that it's wheat harvest was now 78.4% complete ate 56.3 MMT. Ukraine said that it's Sep 1 grain stocks were up 16% year-on-year at 27.2 MMT, including 20.3 MMT of wheat. They said that winter plantings of almost exclusively wheat are 15% complete on 1.07 million ha. Russian winter grain plantings, which are also dominated by wheat, are 47.5% done, say the Ag Ministry. Reuters reported that Iran has sufficient wheat stocks to last until March at a record 10 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Algeria estimated the nation's wheat imports in 2015/16 at 7.7 MMT, up from 7.1 MMT in 2014/15. South Korea's NOFI bought 50,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for March-April shipment. Weekly export sales of 377,500 MT were in line with expectations. The Bloomberg survey mentioned above just the 1 bull, 11 bears and 10 neutrals on wheat. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.81 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.79 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.10 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents.