US Grains Mostly Lower, Chinese Jitters Re-Surface
01/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower as more bad economic news out of China further rocked the market. A Farm Futures Magazine survey has the total US 2015 soybean area estimated at a record 86.32 million acres versus 84.3 million a year ago. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2015 US soybean crop at 3.81 billion bushels, on yields of 46.0 bu/acre. The USDA were at 3.916 billion bushels and 46.9 bu/acre in August. Oil World estimated 2015/16 global soybean output at 315.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 312.8 MMT. They see global soybean stocks at 89.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 87.3 MMT, and up 2.3% from a year previously. Brazil reported Aug soybean exports at 5.16 MMT, down from 8.44 MMT in July, but up versus the 4.12 MMT shipped out 12 month previously. IMEA estimated 2015/16 Mato Grosso soybean plantings at 9.2 million ha, up 2% from a year ago. Agritrend forecast Argentine soybean plantings in 2015/16 at a record 20.8 million ha. The Argentine government said that growers there at 63.4% sold on their 2014/15 soybean crop versus 55.5% a year ago. South Korea's MFG are tendering for 120,000 MT of US, South American and/or Chinese soymeal for Feb-March shipment. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.84 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.74, down 13 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $317.90, down $3.00; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.22, down 70 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 6-7 cents lower. Crude oil was sharply lower, reversing yesterday's gains and adding to the negative tone. Various media reports suggested that around 200 individuals in China may have been arrested, accused of "speaking negatively about the markets". The Chinese, US and EU stock markets were all significantly lower today. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2015 US corn crop at 13.33 billion bushels, on yields of 165 bu/acre, both figures unchanged from his previous estimates. The USDA's August estimates were for production of 13.686 billion bushels, with yields at 168.8 bu/acre. A Farm Futures survey had 2015 US corn acres estimated at 89.65 million versus 88.9 million a year ago. Argentine growers are said to be 65.7% sold on their 2014/15 corn crop versus 63.7% this time a year ago. The USDA reported that processors used 448 million bushels of corn in July for the production of ethanol. That's up from 441 million in June. Agritend said that Argentine growers will cut corn for grain plantings for 2015/16 by 15% to 2.8 million ha, the smallest area in 25 years. Another Argentine analyst. SRA, sees them even lower - down 22% year-on-year. Ukraine have started their 2015 corn harvest, and very early yields are reported to be averaging only 4.2 MT/ha. The USDA have average yields there this year at 6.59 MT/ha. Russia's 2015 corn harvest is also underway and said to be averaging 4.78 MT/ha, down 12% on a year ago and below the USDA's forecast of 5.0 MT/ha. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.56, down 7 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.69, down 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, up a little in Chicago and down a bit in Kansas and Minneapolis. US Wheat Associates said that this year's US soft red winter wheat production was a five-year low of 388.9 million bushels, and that the quality of the crop was poor. Low bushel weights and hagberg levels, and record high levels of vomitoxin and damaged kernels were reported. Agritrend said that Argentine wheat plantings for 2015/16 could fall to the lowest level in more than 100 years at just 3.4 million ha. That's a 19% drop on a year ago, and below the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's 3.7 million estimate and the Rosario Exchange's 3.5 million prediction. Argentine growers are said to be almost 93% sold on their 2014/15 wheat crop versus 67.5% sold this time a year ago. Japan tendered for 126,805 MT of food wheat from the US and Canada for Oct-Nov shipment in it's regular weekly tender. The results of that are due Thursday. A Farm Futures survey estimates the US all wheat area at 55.87 million acres versus 56.1 million a year ago. French wheat futures closed close to 11-month lows today as they desperately search the market for buyers. Ukraine remains an active thorn in Europe's side. Russian exports are lower than they were a year ago, although last season was a record pace. The Russian port of Novorossiysk said that it had shipped out 986 TMT of wheat in July, down 30% from a year ago. Russia were said to be the cheapest offer in Iraq's recent hard wheat tender, not Australia as was reported yesterday. Jordan today cancelled a tender for 100,000 MMT of optional origin hard milling wheat. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.84, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.58 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.92, down 4 1/2 cents.
