US Grains Start Their Holiday-Shortened Trading Week Higher
08/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains to start the US trading week. The USDA announced 120,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2015/16 shipment. After the close they left good to excellent crop ratings at 63%, although there was a one point shift from excellent into good. They have 96% of the crop setting pods, up 3 points from a week ago but still 3 points behind the norm. They said that 18% of the crop is dropping leaves which is 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Weekly export inspections came in at 93,308 MT for the week to Sep 3, that included 22,644 MT for the new 2015/16 marketing year. Concerns over Chinese trade remain. The BBC reported that China's imports dropped 14.3% in August, and that exports fell 6.1%. China was said to have imported 7.78 MMT of beans in Aug, down 18% from a year ago. At 52.39 MMT however they've still imported 9.8% more soybeans Jan/Aug than a year ago. Brazil said that they'd exported more beans Jan/Aug (45.8 MMT) than they did in the whole of the 2014 calendar year (45.7 MMT). Those exports have been helped by a sharp fall in value of the Brazilian real which is down 40% versus the USD since the turn of the year. FC Stone estimated Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean crop at a new record 100.9 MMT versus their 2014/15 production estimate of 96.2 MMT. Brazilian plantings are expected to rise around 3% this year. There's talk too of an Argentine growers switch from corn to beans. The weak real and peso make input hungry corn a more expensive crop to grow, but could also have an impact on fertiliser and agrochemical usage levels in beans too, possibly reducing yields. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.90 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.79 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $312.00, down $1.90; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.85, up 41 points.
Corn: The market closed around 5 cents higher. Weekly export inspections came in at 894,609 MT for the week through to Sep 3, including 471,577 MT for the 2015/16 crop year. The USDA also announced 120,000 MT of US corn sold to Mexico for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. CNGOIC reduced their Chinese 2015 corn production estimate by 3 MMT to a still record 229 MMT due to drought in some regions. They pegged China's 2015/16 sorghum imports at 7 MMT versus 10 MMT in 2014/15. Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated the country's 2015/16 corn exports at 16.9 MMT versus 18.8 MMT in 2014/15. Rusagrotrans estimated Russia's 2015/16 corn crop at 11.4 MMT, unchanged from a year ago. IKAR are higher, estimating Russia’s 2015 corn crop at 12.5-13.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country aims to produce 25 MMT of corn by 2020, with plantings rising from around 2.8 million ha to something in the region of 4.5-5.0 million ha. Increased production will also helped by increased fertiliser applications, they said. A Bloomberg survey estimated the EU 2015 corn crop at 60.2 MMT, down 23% from a year ago. That saw the French corn crop estimated at 13.4 MMT, with Romania at 9.3 MMT, Italy at 6.7 MMT and Hungary at 6.6 MMT. The French corn harvest may start next week some are saying. After the close the USDA was unchanged on US corn good to excellent ratings, leaving those at 68%. The percentage of the crop dented was 76% as of Sunday night, one point ahead of the 5-year average. Maturity is at 20%, six points behind the norm for this time of year. The highest level of maturity is in North Carolina - 86%. There are some reports here and there of some very early corn having already been harvested with yields 10-30% lower than a year ago. The trade is expecting the USDA to maybe cut national average yields by around 2 bu/acre in Friday's WASDE report. They were at 168.8 bu/acre last month. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.55, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.68 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The market closed higher, helped along the way by a sharply weaker US dollar. Weekly export inspections were humdrum at 371,343 MT, and down more than 40% on a week ago. ABARES estimated the Australian wheat crop at 25.28 MMT, up 1.69 MMT from their previous estimate. They also increased their outlook on barley by 374 TMT to 8.62 MMT versus just over 8 MMT a year ago. Rusagrotrans raised their forecast for the 2015 Russian grain crop to 102.68 MMT from 100 MMT previously. They now see wheat production outstripping last year's 59.7 MMT by another 0.5 MMT. IKAR estimated Russia’s 2015 wheat crop a touch higher at 60.6 MMT. They see Russia’s 2015 barley crop at 16.9-17.1 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Rusagrotrans go for a figure of 17.4 MMT. Russian customs data showed that the country exported 6.8 MMT of wheat between Jan/Jul 2015 versus 8.4 MMT a year previously as the export tax held things back. After a slow start to 2015/16 their wheat exports are now starting to pick up however helped by the weak rouble. Reuters said that Algeria actually bought 550 TMT of wheat in their recent tender, not the 400 TMT that was originally reported. Iraq bought 100,000 MT of Canadian hard wheat in their tender. Jordan retendered for 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. South Korea's MFG tendered for 65,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for Jan/Feb shipment. Agritel reported that Black Sea 11.5% milling wheat is offered at only around a dollar more than feed barley as sellers there search the market for spot buyers. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated the country's 2015/16 wheat exports at 15.9 MMT versus 11.2 MMT in 2014/15. They estimated Ukraine’s total 2015/16 grain exports at 36.0 MMT versus 34.8 MMT in 2014/15. Reuters reported that the Egyptian Ag Minister had been ordered to resign and immediately then arrested on suspicion of corruption. French customs data showed that the country exported 1.24 MMT of soft wheat in July versus 1.01 MMT a year ago. Despite that, following a record 2015 harvest, silos in Dunkirk and Rouen remain closed for the intake of wheat. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.65 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.52, up 3 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.87 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
