Nogger's Blog

16/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed lower on the day but higher for the week. Weekly export sales were pretty robust at almost 1.5 MMMT, and predictably were primarily for China (1,143,400 MT) and were also towards the top end of trade expectations. Exports of 1,627,600 MT were up 74 percent from the previous week, and also pretty good., with the primary destination being China (1,327,700 MT). In addition to that the USDA announced 270,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2015/16 shipment. That lot underlines the "strong demand" story that's been a feature supportive factor for soybeans this week. Another is the slow planting progress being made in Brazil's leading soybean state of Mato Grosso, where sowings are only 6.1% done, according to IMEA. "The near term forecast is only calling for widely isolated afternoon showers with improved chances of rainfall arriving next week," says Dr Cordonnier. However, "as long as the soybean planting in the state gets underway by the end of October, the soybean crop could still achieve normal yields if the weather cooperates during the growing season," he adds. Informa estimated US 2016 soybean plantings at 83.9 million acres, down 300,000 from previously, but still up 700,000 on this year. The Argentine presidential elections take place a week on Sunday, with both leading candidates promising farm groups that they will lower export taxes on grains. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.98 1/4, down 7 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $9.02, down 7 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $312.00, down $2.00; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.60, up 2 pips. For the week front month beans gained 12 1/2 cents, meal added $5.10 and oil rose 43 points.

Corn: The corn market closed higher on the day, but lower for the week, on what looks like pre-weekend consolidation. Weekly export sales of 598,400 MT for 2015/16 were up 15 percent from the previous week, and in line with trade forecasts. There were also sales of 60,000 MT for 2016/17 reported for Mexico. Exports of 606,900 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week. Marketing year sales thus far for 2015/16 are down 32% from the previous year’s pace. Exporters would typically have 38% of final corn shipments on the books by this point, currently they have only sold 25% of USDA’s target for the season so far. Ukraine's 2015 corn crop keeps shrinking. The USDA's Ag Attache there now estimates the Ukrainian corn crop at only 21.5 MMT this year. The USDA themselves were at 25 MMT last Friday. Informa projected the 2016 US corn area at 90.8 million acres, up 100,000 on their previous forecast and 2.4 million more than this year. South Korea's KOCOPIA bought 55,000 MT of South American corn for Feb shipment. Dr Cordonnier said that the current delays in planting beans in Mato Grosso could be more of an issue for second crop corn early next year. If the soybean harvest is delayed then "safrinha" corn acreage could be reduced. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest is 58.1% complete on 1.6 million ha for a crop of 8.1 MMT so far. That leaves them well on target for a record crop this year. FranceAgriMer said that the 2015 corn harvest there was 38% complete versus 21% done a week ago and 15% done a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that corn planting in Argentina was 27.5% complete. Reuters said that heavy rain in southern Brazil is disrupting corn shipments from the region and that Asian buyers may soon consider switching to other origins - notably Ukraine - as an alternative. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.87 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents. For the week, Dec 15 was still 6 cents lower, and Mar 16 was down 5 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished the day with double digit losses. It says something that weekly export sales of a relatively modest 460,400 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up 60 percent from the previous week and 80 percent above the prior 4-week average. Marketing year sales to date are down 18% from the previous year’s pace. Cumulative sales thus far are just 51% of USDA’s target for the year versus 62% this time last season. Note too that this season's target is the lowest total of the past 44 years. That highlights the trouble that US wheat is in. Russia's 2015 wheat harvest is said to be 98.9% complete at 63.5 MMT in bunker weight, with the barley harvest 98.8% done at 18.1 MMT. Russian winter grains for the 2016 harvest are said to be planted on 15.0 million ha, down from 15.8 million this time a year ago. Ukraine's winter wheat plantings are also delayed by dryness. APK Inform said that these were down 12% on a year ago as of Oct 9. Ukraine winter wheat plantings this year might only total 5.5 million ha versus 6.7 million a year ago, they said. South Korea's CJ Cheiljedang Corp are tendering for 31,000 MT of US wheat. The country's Daehan Flour Mill are in for 50,000 MT of Australian and 30,000 MT of US wheat. Korea Flour Mills are looking for 31,000 MT of Australian and 20,200 MT of US wheat. A wetter outlook for next week in the US central Plains added a bit of bearishness today. As well as updating us in plantings, the USDA are expected to release the first US winter wheat crop conditions of the year on Monday. Informa estimated the 2016 US all wheat acreage at 54 million acres today versus 54.7 million previously and compared to the 2015/16 acreage of 54.644 million. FranceAgriMer put French winter wheat plantings at 39% complete as of Monday versus 23% a week previously and 8 points ahead of this time last year. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.92 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.83 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.12 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat shed 17 cents, Kansas was 16 3/4 cents lower and Minneapolis lost 17 1/4 cents.