Nogger's Blog

01/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite weekly export sales beating expectations at over 2.5 MMT, primarily for China (1,178,400 MT) and unknown destinations (826,800 MT). How much of the Chinese business was part of last week's showcase 13 MMT deal is unclear. Exports of 814,900 MT were primarily to China (318,400 MT), Germany (150,100 MT), Mexico (119,100 MT), the Netherlands (85,700 MT) and Indonesia (76,300 MT). The USDA also announced 120,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. IMEA said that Mato Grosso farmers are already 40% sold on their largely as yet unplanted new crop soybeans, and Cerealpar estimates forward sales even higher at 45-50% due to the weak real. Credit Suisse said that the real, currently trading at around 4.00 to the US dollar would slip to 4.25 by the end of the year and 4.50 inside 12 months. The inaugural USDA soybean crush report showed 146 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in August versus the average trade estimate of 142 million. China’s Golden Week started today so their markets will be close until Oct 7. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.77 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.80 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $302.60, down $5.70; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.09, down 1 point.

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent higher. Weekly export sales of 748,200 MT for 2015/16 were up 76 percent from the previous week. Mexico (638,600 MT) was the largest buyer. ranged from 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Exporters typically sell 34% of the marketing year’s final corn shipments by this point but are only 22% sold currently. "Strong cooling is predicted in the upcoming week, more in line with seasonal norms in October. Overnight minimum temperatures in the Upper Midwest are expected to drop into the mid 30s F on Sunday and Monday mornings. A hard freeze is not expected, however. The United States corn was 71% ripe and 'safe from frost' as of September 27th, USDA’s most recent report. Corn conditions were 65% good-excellent, 22% fair and 10% poor, much higher than soybeans but worse than 2014 on the same date. Eighteen percent of US corn was harvested, slightly behind 23%, the 5-year average," said Martell Crop Projections. Russia said that their corn harvest is 34% done on 930k ha producing a crop of 4.7 MMT to date. Ukraine said that they'd exported 9.8 MMT of grains so far this season, including 5.45 MMT of wheat, 2.91 MMT of barley and 1.45 MMT of corn. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.88 3/4, up 1 cent; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.99 3/4, up 1 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, despite very poor weekly export sales of only 77,100 MT - easily the lowest of the marketing year so far. Exports of 564,400 MT were better, but were still down 8 percent from the previous week. Cumulative season to date sales are down 18% on where they were this time last year, yet the USDA forecast full season exports almost 10% higher in 2015/16. Total commitments for the current season are 45% of the USDA's target compared to 58% a year ago and 53% typically at this time. Apart from last season, this year's export target is the lowest in forty years, according to Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. To be this far behind last year already then is therefore a concern. Japan bought 128,489 MT of food wheat for Oct-Nov shipment in it's regular weekly tender today, split between US, Canadian and Australian origins. Jordan are tendering for 100,000 MT each of wheat and barley. Oman cancelled a tender for 60,000 MT of Russian wheat for Nov shipment, citing high prices. India was said to have imported more than 120,000 MT of wheat in August, taking their season to date imports to around 420,000 MT, the most since 2010 following the low quality of this year's crop. Much of those imports have been of Australian origin. The Russian Ag Ministry said that they'd harvested 95.5 MMT of grains off 89.2% of the planned area with yields averaging 2.41 MT/ha versus 2.52 MT/ha a year ago. Wheat harvesting is 93.2% complete at 61.4 MMT with yields of 2.57 MT/ha, a 5% decline on a year ago. Barley harvesting is 94% complete at 17.6 MMT. Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated this season's grain crop at 58.5 MMT, with exports in 2015/16 at a record 36.5 MMT. Their 2015 wheat harvest was pegged at 26.2 MMT, and this year's barley crop pegged at 8.3 MMT. Stats Canada are due to release their latest crop production estimates tomorrow. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.07 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.31 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents.